A New Development in China's Belt and Road Initiative: Is AIIB the Command Center for Belt and Road 2.0? Premier Li Qiang Issues a Sudden Directive at the Annual Meeting

"Can the 'Second World Bank' Become the Heart of the Belt and Road Initiative? — New Directives from Beijing Highlighted at the AIIB Annual Meeting"

1. The 'Homework' from Premier Li Qiang Right After the Opening

The 10th Annual Meeting of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was held in Beijing from June 25 to 26. Premier Li Qiang, who took the stage at the opening ceremony, called for the AIIB to function as an "accelerator for the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)" in the "next decade." This essentially urged a shift in the AIIB's stance, which had previously emphasized being "separate from the BRI," and it shocked the participating countries.iflaapr.org

(Omitted: Explanation of AIIB's establishment, 110 member countries, $100 billion capital, AAA rating, etc.)

2. A $3.5 Trillion Funding Gap — Crisis Awareness Highlighted by China's Finance Minister

On the following day, the 26th, Finance Minister Lan Fu'an pointed out in his keynote speech that global development aid (ODA) has been "decreasing by 7% annually since President Trump's return." He requested active lending from the AIIB, stating that "there will be a $3.5 trillion funding shortfall for cross-border infrastructure in developing countries over the next decade."reuters.com

3. BRI 'Reboot' and Western Containment

Initially, the AIIB had tightened project selection to avoid criticism of being a bank dedicated to the BRI. However, amid increasing US and European investment restrictions on China, Beijing is advancing the "seamless integration of AIIB and BRI" and has proposed a plan to fill the funding gap left by the West. In response, EU officials have voiced that "the AIIB is an international public good and should not be turned into a geopolitical tool."

4. The Debate Reflected on Social Media

• Proponents (Centered on the Global South)

  "China is once again voicing the concerns of developing countries. Only the AIIB can fill the gap left by the West."(Kenyan economic newspaper reporter @NairobiBiz)

• Skeptics (Western and Indian)

  "If the AIIB is absorbed into the BRI, it will only reignite criticism of a 'debt trap.'"(Indian Strategic Institute @DelhiStrategist)

• Neutral and Pragmatic

  "The key is transparency in each project. As long as the AIIB's ESG screening does not become a mere formality, there should be no problem."(Former ADB employee @TokyoInfraVet)

5. Expert Opinions

• Professor Zhou Lihua, Tsinghua University"The third phase of the BRI has 'high-quality connectivity' as its keyword. Using the AIIB, the internationalization of RMB-denominated loans can also be targeted."

• Daniel Rosen, RHG Chief Researcher"Sixty percent of BRI projects have profitability challenges. If the AIIB takes over the credit, it could pose a headwind to its rating."

• Yasushi Kudo, Chief Economist, Development Bank of Japan"If the cooperative lending framework with the ADB and World Bank expands, there will be business opportunities for Japanese companies."

6. The Calculations of Member Countries — The Rush to Declare Participation

Emerging oil-producing countries like Qatar and the Maldives are poised to utilize the AIIB framework under the guise of "support for green transition." Meanwhile, the "seats" vacated by Italy and Panama's withdrawal from the BRI are being filled by the Middle East and Africa.greenfdc.org

7. Challenges: Transparency, Dollar Liquidity, Governance

(1)Transparency: The issue of undisclosed debt conditions in BRI projects
(2)Dollar Liquidity: The pros and cons of expanding the RMB-denominated ratio
(3)Governance: China's veto-like position with 26% voting rights

(Omitted: Detailed discussion of each point)

8. Three Future Scenarios

1. "AIIB = BRI Comprehensive Window" Model: Rapid expansion with member country support, but concentrated debt risk.

2. "Dual Signboards" Model: AIIB maintains neutrality as a multilateral MDB, BRI projects are shared with institutions like the China Development Bank.

3. "Distributed Cooperation" Model: Creation of a joint fund by AIIB, ADB, and the World Bank, with partial participation from the West.

9. Impact on Japanese Companies

Opportunities in railway systems, port logistics DX, and hydrogen supply chains. The key is supplying technology that meets environmental and social consideration standards (ESP).

10. Conclusion — The Future of 'Development Bank Diplomacy'

Premier Li's remarks suggest a shift in China's diplomatic focus from "hard infrastructure + soft power" to an "integrated package of institutional infrastructure." Whether the AIIB will become the flagship of this, or a litmus test for multilateralism, remains to be tested by member countries and the market.