Demand Influences Delivery Schedules: The Era Where "Promised Time" is Created by Demand Forecasting

Introduction: Why "Demand Drives the Schedule" Now

Business News in Western Australia, under the headline "Demand drives delivery schedule," discusses the enhancement of production and transportation systems in response to supply-demand pressures. As the headline suggests, delivery time planning is now being reorganized starting from demand. While upstream capabilities are being increased, as seen in the ramp-up of aircraft production, the challenge downstream, in the "last mile," is how to manage demand peaks while maintaining the receiving experience. Business News

Chapter 1: What Do Consumers Expect?

Global online consumption continues to expand, and expectations for the balance of delivery speed, cost, and reliability are rising annually. For example, in Australia, many online shoppers consider "2-5 days" as the standard expectation, with about half of Millennials and Generation X expecting delivery "within 3 days." These expectations create "pressure to advance" delivery schedules. AusPost eCommerce Report
On a macro level, the scale of e-commerce sales itself is rising, and speed is transitioning to a "tabletop" foundation, where low cost, reliability, and easy returns are simultaneously required. ShopifyMcKinsey & Company

Chapter 2: Constraints in Japan: The 2024 Problem and the Change in "Promise Design"

In Japan, starting April 2024, there will be a cap on overtime work for truck drivers, making it difficult to maintain the traditional "pushing through" delivery operations. Both the public and private sectors are required to correct inefficiencies such as waiting for loads and ancillary work, review overly short delivery practices, and change behavior across the entire commercial flow. This is a "new reality on the supply side," reversing the traditional schedule design that was driven by demand to one based on "feasibility." Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism+1All Japan Trucking Association

Chapter 3: Three Levers to Move the Schedule According to Demand

1) Demand Forecasting × Automated Dispatch Planning

Predict demand patterns (day of the week, time of day, events, weather) and automatically optimize vehicles, personnel, and routes. In Japan, systems for demand forecasting and dispatch planning using AI have been introduced, reporting productivity and CO₂ reduction effects. Yamato HoldingsImpress Watch

2) Changing the Way "Promises" Are Made (Delivery Promise Design)

Consider inventory, warehouse location, transportation capacity, and congestion forecasts to display only "feasible delivery dates and times" on the site. During peak times, reduce slots, and expand them during off-peak times. This consistently demonstrates "promises that can be kept," reducing late delivery rates and customer dissatisfaction.

3) Demand Smoothing (Demand Shaping)

Provide mechanisms to "encourage avoiding busy times," such as free shipping thresholds, off-peak discounts, in-store pickup (BOPIS), locker pickup, and scheduled delivery. Coordinating the e-commerce promotion calendar with delivery capacity is key to preventing "delivery accidents" during promotions. AusPost eCommerce Report

Chapter 4: Localization of Fulfillment: Closer Inventory Shortens Promises

Not limited to metropolitan areas, utilizing micro-fulfillment centers (small-scale bases) and store inventory according to the demand density of each area, "Ship-from-Store/Ship-to-Store" is an effective strategy to enhance the feasibility of same-day and next-day delivery. In Australia and New Zealand, investments in turning stores into delivery hubs are accelerating to compete with the speed standards of major e-commerce players. Adelaide Now

Chapter 5: "Air Capacity" and the Pressure of Global Supply

Upstream, aircraft manufacturers are increasing production to meet strong demand. This expands the "seats" (space) in international logistics in the medium to long term, contributing to an expansion of transportation lead time options. However, the fruits of increased production do not automatically resolve last-mile congestion. Demand forecasting, smoothing, and capacity planning downstream remain essential. Business News

Chapter 6: Implementation Steps (Playbook): From SMEs to Large Enterprises, Steps You Can Take "Starting Tomorrow"

1. Current Situation Assessment (Capacity × Demand)

   • Inventory weekly, daily, and hourly demand/delivery capacity.

   • KPI: Demand peak rate (compared to median), capacity overage time, promise vs. actual difference (average, 95th percentile).
     
     

2. Review of Delivery Promise

   • Consider inventory, distance, and congestion forecasts, and present only "feasible slots" before purchase.

   • During pre-holiday and sale periods, list "early bird slots" and "congestion charges" (transparency is important).
     
     

3. Design of Demand Smoothing

   • Combine off-peak discounts, in-store/locker pickup, free shipping thresholds, and regular delivery discounts. AusPost eCommerce Report
     
     

4. Phased Introduction of Proximity Fulfillment

   • Start shipping from "backroom inventory" of stores/small bases, gradually expanding target SKUs. Adelaide Now
     
     

5. AI Dispatch and Dynamic Routing

   • Test introduction of automated demand forecasting and dispatch planning packages. Pre-simulate expected effects (productivity, distance, CO₂). Impress Watch
     
     

6. Quality Management of Promises (Promised vs. Actual)

   • Monitor SLA deviation rate, customer satisfaction, redelivery rate, successful receipt rate, and return lead time.
     
     

7. Resilience Design

   • Alternative measures for weather, traffic, and regulations (switching receipt methods, automatic rescheduling of delivery slots, cross-channel communication).

Chapter 7: KPI Design: Graduating from Just "Speed"

• OTIF (On Time In Full): Achievement rate of on-time and complete delivery.

• Promise Accuracy: Deviation between promised delivery date and actual arrival.

• Slot Fill/Peak Shift Rate: How much was shifted from peak to off-peak times.

• Cost-to-Serve: Delivery cost by SKU and region.

• NPS/CSAT × Delivery Experience: Contribution of delivery experience to satisfaction.

• Redelivery Rate/Successful Receipt Rate: Indicator of the appropriateness of receipt method design.

Chapter 8: Key Points of On-Site Operations—Dealing with Japan-Specific Constraints

• Prioritize Compliance with Laws and Labor: Driver cap regulations and correction of waiting times are "givens" that precede all design. Do not make unreasonable promises. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

• Joint Delivery and Horizontal Collaboration: Joint efforts in the same area enhance last-mile capacity.

• Diversification of Receipt: Combine unattended delivery, lockers, and in-store pickup according to security and customer attributes.

• Visualization and Accountability: Being able to explain "why it is delayed" during congestion with quantitative data greatly improves the customer experience.

Chapter 9: Mini Strategies by Industry

• Food and Beverage: The "weekday pattern" of demand is clear. Slot design to absorb weekend advance and localization of nearby inventory are necessary.

• Fashion: High return rates, minimizing round-trip lead time directly impacts LTV. Utilize lockers and in-store pickup.

• Electronics and Large Items: Installation accompaniment and precision in time specification are important. Refining promise accuracy and visit coordination UX is effective.

• Event Management and Live Venues##HTML_TAG