Graph Rises, Power Shortages: The "Real" Risk of the AI Market - Unveiling the Truth Behind the Multi-Billion Dollar Bubble

The influx of funds from the AI boom has developed into an industrial-scale investment involving semiconductors, data centers, and electricity. While Citi anticipates a $2.8 trillion investment by 2029, concerns about a bubble are heightened by supply constraints in electricity and materials, as well as delays in monetization. The sharp decline during the DeepSeek turmoil highlighted the market's fragility, and additional concerns include low-cost competitors, regulations, and increased reliance on borrowing. However, the driving forces are major companies with strong revenue bases, and corporate usage is expanding. There is also a reality beyond just a "bubble," including robust demand, large multi-year contracts, and the potential for renewable energy and grid expansion. Investment decisions hinge on quantitatively tracking unit economics, the soundness of financing, the ability to secure electricity, land, and permits, and the trends of low-cost competitors. Whether the balance between price and productivity can be restored will determine if this ends as a bubble or becomes new infrastructure.