The Reality of a "Non-Growing America" — The Next Chapter of Economy and Politics Reflected by Halved Immigration

The Reality of a "Non-Growing America" — The Next Chapter of Economy and Politics Reflected by Halved Immigration

The U.S. population is "growing, but losing momentum." This reality was highlighted by the latest population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The period covered is from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025. Although the U.S. population increased to 341.8 million, the growth margin was about 1.8 million, with a growth rate limited to **0.5%**. Compared to the previous year's (2023→2024) growth rate of 1.0%, this is indeed a sharp slowdown.


The "engine of population growth" has halved

What determined this slowdown was neither the birth rate nor the number of deaths, but net international migration. Net international migration is the number of people entering the U.S. from abroad minus those leaving for overseas. The Census Bureau explains that net international migration from July 2024 to June 2025 was about 1.3 million, a decrease of 53.8% from the previous year's about 2.7 million. In other words, the largest factor supporting recent U.S. population growth has almost halved.


Meanwhile, the natural increase (births minus deaths) within the country was about 519,000. Although it has recovered from the decline during the pandemic period, it remains on a long-term downward trend compared to past levels (such as about 1.1 million in 2017). "With births and deaths remaining flat, only immigration has plummeted"—this is the core of the 0.5% growth.


Where growth occurred and where it stalled: The changing "population map"

The slowdown was not uniform nationwide. There were clear differences by state.

  • State with the most growth: South Carolina (+1.5%)
    The main driver of growth was domestic migration (net inflow from other states), symbolizing the "Southern shift" involving multiple factors such as business attraction, housing costs, and climate.

  • States that declined: California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont, West Virginia
    Economic structure, housing conditions, and the balance of inflow and outflow influence population.

  • Florida's fluctuation
    Florida, known as a "state where people gather," reportedly saw a significant decline in domestic migration, suggesting that the overheated migration boom may have cooled off.

  • A small shift in the Midwest
    In the Midwest, there is a suggestion that domestic migration turned positive for the first time in a decade. Even if the scale is not large, it is noted as a change in trend.

The shadow of policy falls on the numbers: Is the sharp decline in immigration a "coincidence"?

The period covered by this estimate overlaps with changes in administration and border operations. Multiple reports indicate that the impact of immigration policies and enforcement strengthening is in the background. Of course, demographics are not determined by policy alone. Economic conditions, employment, exchange rates, global situations, travel costs, and the state of receiving communities all move simultaneously. However, it is unusual for net international migration to narrow so sharply, and both the market and administration are beginning to brace themselves, wondering, "Is this the start of a structural change?"


Moreover, the Census Bureau indicates that if this trend continues, net international migration could further decrease to about 321,000 by July 2026. Will immigration increase again, or will the "low immigration era" become the norm? The U.S. demographic dynamics are truly at a crossroads.


Impact on the economy: Employment, wages, inflation, and aging

If population growth slows, so will the growth of labor supply. In the short term, the circuit of "not enough workers → wages rise → impact on prices" is anticipated, while in weak economic phases, the reverse circuit of "no increase in people → demand growth slows → economy cools" can also occur. Which way it swings depends on the combination of economic cycles and policies.


In the longer term, the weight of aging increases. As natural growth dwindles, immigration has played a role in increasing supporters for taxes, pensions, and healthcare. The more net international migration shrinks, the more the age composition of society tends to skew upwards. "It's more troublesome for national management if the working-age population doesn't increase" than if "the population doesn't increase."


SNS reactions: How one number can divide opinions

This news also sparked strong reactions on social media. The responses can be broadly categorized into the following five "temperature zones."


1) "Regulation worked" group: Welcoming it as an achievement
Voices evaluating the sharp decline in immigration from the perspectives of security, social costs, and border management. The narrative that "if the population grows too much, housing, healthcare, and education can't keep up" and "focus on domestic issues first" stands out. The slowdown in population growth itself is seen as "optimization," and rather as a desirable change.


2) "Labor shortage" group: Crisis from a field perspective
Industries dependent on manpower, such as construction, caregiving, agriculture, and food service, are sensitive to the thinning labor supply. On social media, posts sharing the practical sense of "the field can't operate without people" and "even if wages rise, there are no people" are easily shared. The statistic of "1.3 million" is perceived as a constraint on business activities.


3) "Aging and fiscal collapse" group: Medium- to long-term warning
While immigration is not a panacea, in a society with declining birthrates and aging, it can be an element supporting labor participation, consumption, and tax revenue. The slower the population growth, the heavier the aging burden becomes relatively. On social media, issues such as "who will support social security" and "ultimately, labor shortages will reduce growth and tax revenue" are frequently raised.


4) "Clear winners and losers by state" group: The interest as a map
"Which state grew" is easily spread on social media. Researchers and data analysts explain state-by-state migration, natural increase, and international migration, connecting it to topics like regional economies and housing markets. Particularly, the growth of states like South Carolina, Idaho, North Carolina, and Texas is often discussed in the context of job changes and relocation.


5) "Can the numbers be trusted?" group: Focus on methodology, politics, and statistical operations
Population estimates are estimates and are influenced by methodological improvements, data linkage, and administrative operations. The Census Bureau also mentioned improvements in estimation methods this time, and on social media, there is interest in "whether the changes in calculation methods make it appear to fluctuate" and "whether delays and staff shortages have an impact," focusing on "how statistics are made." Because it is a theme prone to political interpretation, there are a certain number of voices cautious about how to read the data.

What will happen next: Three points of discussion

Finally, if this news is viewed not as "mere statistics" but as a "signal anticipating the next reality," there are three points of interest.


Discussion Point ①: Will net international migration bottom out?
Whether the sharp decline is a temporary reaction or will "settle at a low level" due to policy, global situations, and constraints on the U.S.'s capacity to accept (housing and employment) will be the biggest turning point.


Discussion Point ②: How much will natural increase shrink?
As births minus deaths dwindle in the long term, the more immigration decreases, the more fragile population growth becomes. Even if the population is increasing, structurally, the country may be approaching a "nation that finds it hard to grow."


Discussion Point ③: Interstate competition will become more intense
Where companies and people move is determined by comprehensive strength, including not only employment but also housing costs, tax systems, education, security, and climate. The slower the population growth, the more the "competition" between states intensifies, impacting politics and finances.


Population is the foundation of everything. If the way it grows changes, so will work styles, housing, industries, and politics. The "0.5%" this time may be a quiet starting signal indicating that the U.S. has entered the next era.


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