"The End of the War Depends on Russia's Decision" - The Reality Presented by the US and Ukraine

"The End of the War Depends on Russia" — A Stark Message from Miami

Nearly four years since the Ukraine war began, with drones and missiles crisscrossing the night sky and a war of attrition continuing on the front lines, the U.S.-Ukraine talks held in Miami, Florida, have suddenly captured global attention. Both governments have reiterated here that "the key to ending the war lies in Russia's will."stern.de

Ukrainian President Zelensky evaluated the phone talks with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and others as "constructive," emphasizing his determination to "continue sincere cooperation with the U.S. side to create true peace."stern.de

Meanwhile, the Russian military continues to launch hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles across Ukraine, targeting energy infrastructure.stern.de

"Peace talks" and "air raid warnings" are proceeding simultaneously — this is the current reality surrounding Ukraine.

The Ongoing "Peace Talks" in Miami, Florida

The current discussions in Miami revolve around the U.S.-proposed peace plan. At the center of the negotiations are Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff, Ukraine's chief negotiator Rustem Umerov, and Ukrainian military commander-in-chief Andriy Hunatov.stern.de

The two sides have already held at least two rounds of talks, and according to the U.S. State Department, they have reached consensus on the following points.stern.de

• "Real Progress Depends on Russia"
  Progress toward a true agreement hinges on whether Russia demonstrates a "serious commitment" to long-term peace.

• Halting Escalation and Ending the Slaughter
  To show a willingness for peace, Russia must take concrete steps to curb the escalation of hostilities and cease the slaughter of civilians.

• Security and Deterrence Framework
  They agreed on the broad outlines of a "security framework" and "deterrence capability" to protect Ukraine's security in the event of a future agreement.

Thus, at the Miami table, the discussion is centered more on how to create a "structure to prevent the resumption of war" rather than where to draw the ceasefire line.

Is "Depending on Russia" a Fact or a Diplomatic Message?

The phrase "the end of the war depends on Russia's will" may sound obvious at first glance. However, as a diplomatic message, it can be interpreted in several ways.

1. Pressure on Moscow
   By publicly stating that "the ball is in the Kremlin's court," the U.S. and Ukraine are making it visible to the international community that "continuing the war is Russia's choice."The Guardian

2. Signal to Ukraine
   At the same time, it sends a message to Ukraine that "the U.S. does not intend to force unilateral concessions." By repositioning the final responsibility for accepting peace terms with the side that initiated the aggression, it aims to alleviate distrust within Ukraine.

3. Accountability to the World
   With the prolonged war and enormous support costs, the question of "when will it end?" is growing stronger both domestically and internationally. The U.S. and Ukraine are trying to share the explanation that "it's not that it can't end, but that Russia is not trying to end it."Reuters

Nevertheless, the possibility that Russia will respond straightforwardly to this message is not high. In fact, President Putin has reportedly labeled parts of the U.S. peace proposal as "positive," while still imposing tough conditions such as control over the entire Donbas region and the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces.Reuters

The Controversial "U.S. Peace Proposal" and Its Revision

Behind the Miami talks lies a peace plan that nearly faltered once.

The "28-point peace plan" compiled by U.S. and Russian negotiators initially sparked fierce backlash within Ukraine. According to reports, the plan included proposals such as:stern.de

• Ukraine forgoing NATO membership

• Significant reduction of Ukraine's military size

• Ceding the entire Donbas region to Russia (including areas not under Russian control)

• "Broad amnesty" including individuals suspected of war crimes

For Ukraine, these were seen as undermining the very foundations of its sovereignty and security, perceived as crossing multiple "red lines."Bild

As a result, the U.S. and Ukraine agreed on a new "19-point plan," shelving the most explosive issues — territorial matters, NATO relations, and future dealings with Russia — as matters for direct decision by President Trump and President Zelensky.Bild

Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergiy Kyslytsia emphasized that "very little remains from the original plan," highlighting that Ukraine's demands, such as the withdrawal of military size restrictions and the revision of amnesty clauses, were largely reflected.Bild

Russia's "Positive" Stance and Unchanged Hardline Conditions

How is Russia reacting to these developments?

According to Reuters, President Putin recently held a five-hour meeting with Witkoff and Kushner (Trump's son-in-law), reportedly showing a willingness to accept parts of the U.S. proposal.Reuters

However, at the same time,

• "Complete control" of the Donbas region

• Withdrawal of Ukrainian forces

are reportedly still being demanded without any concessions.Reuters

A Kremlin aide, while optimistically commenting that "progress is being made in major negotiations," also cautioned that the final outcome depends on the U.S. response.Reuters

This stance indicates that "diplomatic flexibility" and "military hardline" are proceeding simultaneously. In other words, Russia still adheres to the fundamental policy of **"achieving what cannot be gained diplomatically through military means."**Reuters

Ongoing Drone Warfare and Infrastructure Attacks on the Battlefield

While there seems to be progress at the negotiation table, the reality on the battlefield paints a completely different picture.

In recent nighttime attacks, the Russian military reportedly launched653 drones and 51 missiles at Ukraine, causing large-scale power and water outages affecting tens of thousands in southern Odessa and other areas.stern.de

• In the Odessa region, about 9,500 people lost heating, and 34,000 were cut off from water supply.

• Energy facilities in other areas such as Chernihiv, Zaporizhzhia, Lviv, and Dnipropetrovsk were also targeted.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues its drone attacks on Russian territory, with reports of damage to port facilities and oil refineries.The Guardian

The Ukraine war has become so characterized by the use of unmanned vehicles that it is now referred to as a "drone war." This not only changes the risks on the battlefield but also continues to blur the lines between the front and rear, and civilian life.Wikipedia

Three Perspectives on Social Media

The recent "depending on Russia" statement and Miami talks have sparked various reactions on social media. Here, we will categorize them into three main perspectives (summarizing typical points as the specific posts are diverse).

1. Voices from Ukraine: "Don't Decide Over Our Heads Again"

Concerns like the following have been repeatedly expressed from accounts within Ukraine and the diaspora.

• "Don't decide Ukraine's future without Ukraine."

• "In the negotiation photos, it looks like only the U.S., Russia, and Trump's aides are present."

Indeed, the fact that Putin, Witkoff, and Kushner met in Moscow without European representatives led German media to sharply criticize that "Europe is hardly sitting at the negotiation table concerning Ukraine