Moscow Angered, Kyiv Delighted—Trump's "100% Tariff" Shakes the World

1. Background—The Day "50 Days" Became "10 Days"

On the night of the 28th (local time), during a meeting with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Turnberry, Scotland, President Trump declared, "Putin has disappointed me. Therefore, I will shorten the deadline further." If enacted, countries importing large amounts of Russian energy, such as China and India, will face an additional 100% tariff. The aim is to "cut off Russia's foreign currency inflow and drag them to the ceasefire negotiation table."

2. Moscow's Anger—Medvedev's Warning

While the Kremlin refrained from official comments, National Security Council Chairman Medvedev posted on X, "If the tariff deadline is used as a threat, the U.S. itself will step into the war." He further cautioned Trump, "Do not repeat Biden's mistakes." Russian state media repeatedly assert a confident stance, stating, "We are ready for an economic war."ZDFheute

3. Kyiv's Welcome—Zelensky Advocates "Peace Through Strength"

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky praised in a nighttime video address, "Sanctions and tariffs are our strongest allies." He reported that "300 Russian drones were shot down" in the past 24 hours and announced an increase in SBU special forces personnel. Ukrainian public opinion is predominantly hopeful, with voices saying, "The U.S. is finally getting serious."

4. Ripple Effects on the Global Economy—Calculations by China, India, and the EU

If the tariffs are truly enacted, international prices for crude oil and natural gas are likely to soar, potentially reigniting inflation. Particularly, India, which imports about 45% of its crude oil from Russia, fears "domestic fuel prices will skyrocket if targeted by sanctions" (according to Indian newspaper editorials). While China's Ministry of Commerce calls it a "violation of WTO rules," they are reportedly exploring a plan to switch crude oil settlements to yuan in backdoor negotiations. The EU is hastening discussions with the U.S. on alternative frameworks to avoid "secondary sanctions cooperation exclusion."

5. Three Different Reactions on Social Media

(1) The "Counterattack" of Russian Accounts
Following Medvedev's post, hashtags like #StopEconomicWar and #HandsOffRussia trended in the Russian-speaking world on X. Images of boycotting American products and memes stating "Ruble payment is enough" spread widely.

(2) The "Cheers" of Ukraine Supporters
In the English-speaking world, #TariffForPeace, and in the Ukrainian-speaking world, #МитаЗаМир (Tariffs for Peace) surged. Clips from Zelensky's speech exceeded 10 million views in 24 hours, and numerous countdown GIFs demanding "Stop the war in 10 days" were shared.

(3) The Brazilian "Vampetaço" Counterattack
When Trump hinted at a 50% tariff on Brazilian steel on July 10, Brazilian users protested by posting nude photos of former soccer player Vampeta en masse, a phenomenon known as "Vampetaço." The same template images were posted with the hashtag "#TaxadFoiTaxado" (The Tax King Was Taxed) in response to the Russian tariffs, causing the official U.S. presidential account to temporarily restrict replies.Wikipedia

6. Immediate Reactions in Stock and Commodity Markets

Immediately after the announcement, WTI crude oil futures temporarily rose by 7%, and the NY Dow recorded a ▲1.8% drop. Coupled with the Trump administration's "strong dollar" policy, resource-rich countries' currencies plummeted against the dollar, while grain and gold prices soared. U.S. investment bank Morgan Brooks warns of a "scenario where oil exceeds $120, as supply restructuring will not catch up for at least three months."

7. Three Scenarios as Seen by Experts

1. "Tariff Imposition → Short-term Ceasefire"
   China and India pressure Russia, leading to a limited ceasefire agreement.

2. "Loophole to Avoid Tariffs"
   Russia bypasses economic damage by exporting oil via intermediary ports.

3. "Quagmire of Sanction Battles"
   Moscow seizes Western companies' assets and strengthens cyber retaliation, prolonging risks.

The U.S. think tank CSIS analyzes that "the most realistic scenario is a compromise between ② and ③." They believe that if cyber retaliation increases, infrastructure disruptions will cascade, forcing G7 countries to allocate additional defense budgets.

8. Implications for Japan

Japan, which relies on Russia for about 9% of its LNG imports, is not unaffected. According to sources from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "If tariffs are imposed, alternative procurement costs could reach 700 billion yen annually." The Kishida administration maintains a cautious stance on "additional sanctions against Russia," but continues to be caught between G7 pressure and its own position.

9. Conclusion—Where Will the "10-Day" Needle Swing?

In a countdown of just 10 to 12 days, the economic weapon of tariffs has entangled the world. Historically, sanctions have not been a panacea to end wars, but their power as a diplomatic card cannot be denied. Will Putin make concessions or seek loopholes? And will Trump himself adhere to the deadline? The outcry on social media and the market's volatility indicate the stark reality that the world now wavers with just "one tariff."

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