Switch 2 Lottery Strategy: Are Multilingual Versions Really "Easier to Win"? A Thorough Comparison of Winning Odds with the Japanese Version Using Data

Introduction

In this article, we examine the actual values from the 1st and 2nd My Nintendo Store lotteries (Famitsu/Game8 surveys) and combine them with the supply scale, price differences, and user trends indicated by Nintendo's official data to investigate the difference in winning probabilities between the multilingual version and the Japanese version.

The results are as follows.

Initially, the multilingual version had a remarkably high success rate, but from the second round onwards, the number of applications surged, and the gap rapidly narrowed. The situation where "the multilingual version is an easy win" is already collapsing, and whether the hurdle of an additional 20,000 yen (69,980 yen) can be justified is the key.Conclusion: Even now, the multilingual version is slightly more advantageous, but the margin of advantage is rapidly decreasing. Considering changes in lottery rules, application conditions, and anti-resale measures, we will specifically explain future strategies.

1. Background—The Structure of the Switch 2 Battle

• Demand 2.2 million over supply: Nintendo officially announces "2.2 million domestic applications leading to supply shortage" theverge.com

• Price Difference and Sales Channels: Japanese Version 49,980 yen, Multilingual Version 69,980 yen / The latter is My Nintendo Store exclusive reuters.com

• Strengthened Anti-Resale Measures: Narrowing down the base with application conditions (50 hours cumulative Switch software play + over 1 year NSO membership)
  
  
  
  
  

2. Reading Winning Probabilities from Data

2-1 1st Lottery (Announced April 24)

• Famitsu Survey 17,000 votes: Multilingual Version Winning Rate Over 50%, Japanese Version Standalone 30% famitsu.com

• Game8 Survey 9,000 votes: Multilingual Version 80%, Japanese Version 30% / Note Sample Bias game8.jp

• Factor Analysis

  • Few applicants due to high price (Total applications 902 vs Japanese Version 16,189)

  • Some of those who "want it on release day" flowed into the multilingual version, prepared for the high price

  • The reassurance that even without Japanese UI, it can be set to Japanese in system settings spread

2-2 2nd Lottery (Announced May 20)

• Twitter Aggregation → NintendoSoup Article: Multilingual Version 29.9%, Japanese Version Around 5% nintendosoup.com

• Reasons for Rapid Narrowing of Gap

  • 1st Round Losers Switched to Multilingual Version → Increase in Total Applications

  • Supply Units Decreased from 1st Round (Nintendo's announcement is not public, but multiple leaks estimate a 40% decrease)

  • "Multilingual Version Meta" Spread on YouTube, Leading to Demand Explosion youtube.com

2-3 Trend Forecast for 3rd Round Onwards

• Personal Aggregations on SNS Already Report Multilingual Version Winning Rates in the 15-20% Range detail.chiebukuro.yahoo.co.jp

• 5th Lottery (7/2~) is Reshuffled with "1-4 Round All Losers Only" Condition famitsu.com

• Model: Increase in Application Base × Supply Equalization → Advantage of Multilingual Version Further Shrinks

3. Comparison of Advantages and Disadvantages

4. Strategic Application Techniques

1. Condition Check: Prioritize Retail Store Lotteries if NSO Membership History or 50h Playtime is Insufficient
   
   
   

2. Branching by Price Tolerance

   • Price < Time Value → Focus Solely on Multilingual Version

   • Budget Priority → Apply for Both Japanese Version and Retail Store
     
     
     

3. Tips by Lottery Round

   • Early Rounds: Advantage for High-Priced Models

   • Mid-Stage: Reversal of Base → Target Peripheral Device Sets

   • Late Stage: Re-equalization with Losers-Only Lottery

5. Frequently Asked Questions

• Q. Do domestic DL software work on the multilingual version? → No problem if eShop region is set to Japan

• Q. What about repair services? → Accepted at Nintendo Service Centers in Japan (Same Warranty Coverage)

• Q. What about using different region cartridges when traveling abroad? → Can be launched. DLC follows the purchase region

6. Summary

• The initial "multilingual version dominance" is trending towards convergence. Currently, it remains approximately 2 to 3 times more advantageous than the Japanese version

• Weigh the price difference and winning rate difference to judge based on total cost, entering a phase of

• It is important to keep an eye on changes in lottery rules and potential supply increases, and not to neglect updating information

Reference Article List

1. Famitsu "Switch2 1st Lottery Sales Survey Results"famitsu