The Reality of Desertification Shaking Nigeria's Future: The Livelihoods of 40 Million People at Risk

1. 43% of the Land Facing Desert Encroachment

"Now, 43% of Nigeria's land, approximately 923,000km², is under the influence of desertification and land degradation. The number of residents directly affected is 40 million." On July 20, at the national dialogue "Restore the Land: Unlock the Opportunities" held in Abuja, the figures presented by Environment Minister Baralabe Lawal (represented by Permanent Secretary Mahmood Kambari) left the audience in silence.Businessday NG

2. "Fields Buried in Sand" — The Reality of Northern Rural Areas

In the Gashua area of Yobe State in the northeast, farmer Amina Baba (42) laments, "Half of the farmland has been swallowed by sand over the past decade." The ground is too hard for farming tools to penetrate, and the landscape has transformed into endless sand dunes. The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) reports that 24 billion tons of fertile soil are lost globally each year, with northern Nigeria at the southern edge of the Sahel being a prime example.Businessday NGPunch Newspapers

3. Impact on Food and Security

Desertification reduces crop yields, accelerating unemployment and poverty in rural areas. Food shortages drive up market prices, leading to urban inflation and fueling social instability nationwide, warns the Ministry of Environment. In Benue State in central Nigeria, land disputes between herders and farmers are frequent, with international NGOs reporting over 10,000 deaths in the past five years.Business Insider

4. Citizens' Anger and Hope Reflected on Social Media

On the day of the announcement, #RestoreTheLand became the number one trend in Nigeria on X (formerly Twitter). The environmental podcast @RadioIITA highlighted in a live broadcast that "desertification is a 'stopper' to a sustainable future," resulting in a 1.5-fold increase in followers in just two days. A 2019 official post from the Nigerian Tribune stating "Desertification threatens 40 million people and 95% of livestock in 15 states" was reshared, reigniting past discussions.

Meanwhile, the youth-led tree-planting group @NaijaGreenWall released a time-lapse video of drone footage on TikTok. European media have introduced them as the "Nigerian version of the Greta generation" taking action.

5. Government and International Measures — "Great Green Wall" and "ACReSAL"

The government has established the Great Green Wall initiative's domestic agency, NAGGW (National Agency for the Great Green Wall), to manage the "green barrier" across the Sahel. Additionally, the World Bank's six-year plan, ACReSAL, aims to restore 1 million hectares of degraded land by 2030.Wikipedia

However, progress is not necessarily smooth. The survival rate of seedlings in arid regions is less than 60%, with funding shortages and community consensus building as bottlenecks.

6. Economic Return "30 Dollars for Every 1 Dollar Invested"

The Ministry of Environment estimates the investment effect of land restoration as "up to 30 dollars in economic return for every 1 dollar invested." This quantifies the multifaceted benefits, including increased agricultural production, water resource security, CO₂ absorption credit, and tourism promotion.Businessday NG
The financial sector is also moving. Nairametrics reports that domestic banks are considering the creation of "green sub-sovereign bonds," anticipating that the new trend in ESG investment will support desertification measures.Nairametrics

7. The Power of Civil Society — The Rise of Women's Groups

In Jigawa State in the northwest, a women's cooperative is planting drought-resistant Moringa trees, selling the leaves and seeds as superfoods domestically and internationally. Their annual sales have tripled in three years, and the continuation rate of education among young women has also improved. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) praises this as a prime example of how desertification measures have also impacted gender equality and education.

8. Scientific Future Scenarios

The National Meteorological Agency predicts that the average annual temperature in the north will rise by **+2.5°C** by 2100. Changes in precipitation patterns will inevitably require a reorganization of planting calendars. Climate models warn that "by 2035, losses in livestock farming, which is primarily pastoral, will exceed income," highlighting the urgent need for smart irrigation using IT and subsidies for meteorological data.

9. "Reclaiming Stolen Land" — Youth Cultivating Green

In Kano State, a low-cost moisture sensor developed by university student Sadiq Ayuba (23) and others is gaining attention. Made from recycled PET bottles and IoT boards, it notifies soil moisture levels via LINE Bot. A crowdfunding campaign for 100 units sold out in 24 hours, symbolizing hope in "Tech × Agriculture."

10. Conclusion — Beyond the "Quiet Emergency"

Desertification quietly yet surely erodes the living foundations of people. The cries of 40 million are beginning to reach the world, carried by the dust.The fight to turn dry land back into fertile soil is a mirror reflecting not just Nigeria's future, but that of the entire planet.
Can we restore green areas on the map we pass to the next generation? The answer lies solely in whether we act or not.