Will "Zero Measles" Be Achieved in Time for the World Cup? — The "Public Health Deadline" Mexico Faces

The air in Mexico is slightly unsettled. The reason is not soccer. Ahead of the 2026 World Cup, which is one of the world's largest human flow events, measles outbreaks are being reported in various places, prompting health authorities to accelerate vaccine distribution and vaccination campaigns. According to reports, the outbreak began in 2025, and as of February 2026, the damage and infections are still accumulating. While the government expresses confidence in the vaccine supply, measures reminiscent of the COVID-19 pandemic, such as mask mandates in schools and enhanced health checks, have emerged in some regions.

"Elimination" and "Zero" Are Different—A System with Shifting Evaluations

The term "elimination" can easily lead to misunderstandings. Measles elimination does not simply mean that there are "zero" patients. Generally, the requirements are that there has been no continuous endemic transmission in a certain area for at least 12 months, and that a surveillance system supporting this is functioning. In other words, even if there are imported cases or sporadic outbreaks, elimination can be maintained if the chain of transmission is broken. Conversely, if outbreaks persist and chains continue, the evaluation may need to be reconsidered.

PAHO (Pan American Health Organization) has announced plans to hold a meeting to verify the elimination status of the United States and Mexico, emphasizing that the "title" is determined by surveillance and data, not political prestige.

Why Measles Has Returned Now

Measles may seem like an "old disease," but it can spread rapidly if vigilance lapses. It is highly contagious, and achieving herd immunity requires a high vaccination rate, often around 95%. When factors such as delays in routine vaccinations due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the spread of anti-vaccine rhetoric, and disparities in medical access overlap, immunity gaps quietly accumulate and can erupt all at once. PAHO has sounded the alarm over the spread in the Americas, also mentioning the scale of unvaccinated or missed vaccinations.

There are also variations within Mexico by state. Reports have highlighted Jalisco State (around Guadalajara) as one of the epicenters, discussing measures such as mask-wearing in schools and school closures.

Meanwhile, the federal government has secured vaccines on a large scale and mentioned the distribution volume.

The World Cup as an "Amplification Device"

The World Cup itself does not cause infections. The issue is that the flow of people can simultaneously widen "immunity gaps" and "information gaps."

• Human Movement: Spectators gather from around the world, and domestic travel increases. This not only increases the number of imported cases but also accelerates the spread between cities.

• Tensions in Healthcare and Tourism: Emergency and outpatient services become crowded, and contact tracing that could be managed in normal times may fall behind.

• Perception of "Safety": Trust in public health in the host country is directly linked to tourism, economy, and diplomacy.

The CDC (United States) strongly recommends measles vaccination (MMR) before international travel and issues travel advisories, including for Mexico.

Reactions on Social Media—"Anxiety," "Action," and "Denial" Flow Simultaneously

A characteristic of this situation is that "lines on the ground" and "waves on the timeline" are running parallel.

1) Anxiety: Voices Directly Linked to Spectating and Travel
On X (formerly Twitter), concerns such as "Is it safe before the World Cup?" and "Should we postpone our family trip?" spread easily along with news links. Especially when words like "host city" or "masks in schools" appear, memories of the COVID-19 period are triggered, and anxiety tends to amplify.

2) Action: Practical Posts Encouraging Vaccination
Meanwhile, on platforms like Instagram, practical messages such as "Check your and your children's vaccination status" and "Get vaccinated before traveling" can be seen. Posts focused on procedures rather than emotions are effective in increasing action without inciting fear.

3) Denial and Division: Overreaction Theories and Politicization
Additionally, posts that recycle outbreak news into political or conspiracy theories are also mixed in. In cross-border infectious diseases, "who is to blame" easily becomes a point of contention, and discussions on vaccine policy can quickly turn into attacks on opposing factions. Such divisions make it difficult to raise vaccination rates. As a topic on social media, there are also narratives linking the resurgence of measles in the Americas to the spread of anti-vaccine rhetoric.

The Key is the Simultaneous Progress of "Vaccination," "Surveillance," and "Explanation"

Measles countermeasures do not end with just getting vaccinated. At least three pillars are necessary.

1. Vaccine Stock and "How to Deliver"
   Securing a large stock is the first step. Next, important aspects include the logistics of vaccination sites, mobile vaccinations in places where people gather such as schools, stations, and commercial facilities, and reaching unvaccinated groups. In Mexico, vaccination campaigns near public transportation have also been reported.

2. Surveillance System and Rapid Containment
   To maintain elimination status, it is essential that case identification, testing, and contact tracing are operational. PAHO's movement to re-evaluate the framework is because surveillance and response capabilities are the evaluation axes.

3. Explanation: Avoiding Fearmongering and Not Leaving Misinformation Unchecked
   Denial and division on social media, if left unchecked, can create valleys in vaccination rates. Overblown fearmongering leads to backlash, while silence allows misinformation to prevail. What is needed is communication that accurately presents risks and repeatedly conveys what actions should be taken in concise terms.

"Because the World Gathers," It is Tested by World Standards

The 2026 tournament is not just an event for Mexico. It is co-hosted with the United States and Canada, and the spectators are multinational. The number of measles cases continues to be reported in the United States, and it needs to be addressed as a regional issue.

Ultimately, what is being questioned is not "perfect zero," but "the ability to break the chain" and "the ability to restore trust." Behind the cheers in the stadium, can the lines at vaccination sites become "another breakwater"? The months leading up to the World Cup will be the time when the public health of the host country is most in the spotlight.

Sources (with URLs / Description of Content Referred)