Side Effects of 50% US Tariffs: Mexico and Brazil Surpass the US in Beef Purchases! What are the Economic Movements Behind This?

1. Introduction: The "North American Balance" Disrupted Overnight

"Wherever you eat, Mexican cuisine is incomplete without beef. And now, that beef is arriving in large quantities from Brazil," said Ricardo Sanchez, the owner of a taco specialty shop in central Mexico City, with a smile in late July. According to the latest statistics released by the Brazilian government on August 2, the export volume of Brazilian beef to Mexico from January to June 2025 reached 16,100 tons, a 420% increase compared to the same period last year, amounting to $89.3 million. As a result, Mexico surpassed the United States to become the second-largest importer of Brazilian beef.

2. The Headwind of "Trump Tariffs"

The direct trigger for this sudden change was the additional tariffs (up to 50%) on Brazilian products imposed by U.S. President Trump on June 30. Beef was one of the few agricultural products not excluded, and exports to the U.S. peaked at 44,100 tons ($229 million) in April, dropping to 13,400 tons ($75.3 million) in June, a 67% decrease.

3. Two Factors Supporting Mexico's "Bulk Buying"

(1) USMCA's Rules of Origin
Under the USMCA, Mexico has been gradually reducing tariffs on beef imported from third countries, reaching nearly zero by July 2025. Furthermore, Brazil cleared Mexico's sanitary inspections in 2021, eliminating the "physical barriers of the supply chain."

(2) "Price Advantage" as a Substitute for U.S. Products
While the import price of U.S. choice-grade ribeye exceeds $13 per kilo with tariffs, Brazilian beef is around $9. The favorable exchange rate, with a strong Mexican peso and a weak Brazilian real, prompted wholesale traders to switch to Brazilian products en masse.

4. China Maintains Overwhelming Lead

China, the largest buyer, imported **134,400 tons ($739.9 million)** in June alone, a 64% increase compared to the same month last year, still at an "unmatched" volume.CNN Brasil

5. Social Media Frenzy: What is "#Vampetaço"?

Immediately after the tariff announcement, Brazilian social media was flooded with "#Vampetaço." "Vampeta" refers to former soccer player Vampeta, symbolizing "dancing cheerfully in adversity," a meme where users bombarded Trump's posts with GIFs of Vampeta dancing and photos of beef steaks. U.S. Instagram even temporarily restricted comments.Wikipedia

Additionally, "#StopTrumpTariffs" and "#NoTradeWar" trended globally on X (formerly Twitter), with self-deprecating posts from American farmers like "'Who are the tariffs for?'" Kevin Johnson, a livestock farmer in Alabama, lamented, "Brazilian meat has penetrated Mexico, and we're left with stockpiles."

Meanwhile, on Mexican consumer social media, "#CarnePremiumParaTodos (Premium Meat for Everyone)" emerged, with posts celebrating that "Brazilian picanha is now easily available at supermarkets."

6. Voices from the Industry: Brazil, the U.S., and Mexico

• The Brazilian Beef Exporters Association (Abiec) acknowledged the impact, stating "30,000 tons were unable to be shipped to the U.S. due to the Trump tariffs," but expressed confidence in compensating through Mexico, the Middle East, and ASEAN.Terra

• **The U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF)** estimated that if Brazilian products penetrate the North American market, U.S. livestock revenue could lose $1 billion annually.

• **The Mexican National Livestock Association (CNOG)**, while considering the reintroduction of safeguards in the long term to protect domestic livestock, acknowledged that Brazilian products currently alleviate supply shortages.

7. Economic Impact: Brazil's "Victory" or "Momentary Frenzy"?

According to the Brazilian Ministry of Commerce, the total beef export value in June was $1.3 billion, setting a new record. The proportion of beef in total exports is approaching 10%.

However, U.S. economic magazines analyze that "the tariffs are likely a pre-election performance and may be withdrawn after re-election." Brazilian companies must engage in **risk management assuming a "post-tariff era."**

8. Future Scenarios

9. Post-Interview Notes: "Beef Globalization 2.0"

This rapid shift in market share is a prime example of how political decisions can swiftly change what's on the dinner table. Taco shop owner Ricardo laughs, "If it tastes good, the country doesn't matter," but behind the scenes, complex trade agreements and social media opinions swirl, with the potential to escalate into a "beef cold war." While it's a tailwind for Brazil's livestock industry, the true winner will be determined by how they manage the triple variables of "exchange rates," "regulations," and "public opinion."

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