Did a Manga "Prophecy" Halt Airline Routes? Analyzing the Spread of the "July 5th Great Disaster" Hoax in East Asia and Its Impact on Japanese Tourism

1. The Spark of the Prophecy Controversy: What is the Manga 'The Future I Saw'?

On the morning of June 21, the German financial news site Aktiencheck reported that "rumors of a major disaster occurring in Japan in the near future have led airlines to cancel flights." The article pointed to the records of "premonition dreams" by manga artist Ryo Tatsuki, who has been drawing them for over 30 years. Her comic of the same name includes a depiction of "a large tsunami coming in March 2011," which became a topic of discussion after the Great East Japan Earthquake for its "accuracy."


In the 2021 new edition, it was added that "a true disaster will come on July 5, 2025," which became the epicenter of the current commotion.aktiencheck.de

2. The "#July5Disaster" and the Resulting "Travel Boycott"

In the spring of 2025, "#July5Disaster" went viral on TikTok and Xiaohongshu (RED), recording hundreds of millions of views in a short period. Users in Hong Kong and Taiwan, who have less experience with earthquakes, particularly spread the fear, leading to a surge in cancellation calls to travel agencies. Hong Kong travel agency WWPKG revealed that "as of June, bookings for tours to Japan have decreased by 50% compared to the same month last year."washingtonpost.com

3. Airline Responses: A Rush of Suspensions and Reductions

• Hong Kong Airlines: All flights on the Kagoshima and Kumamoto routes suspended in July and August

• Greater Bay Airlines: Gradually reducing flights on the Tokushima route from mid-May, scaling back until October

• Taiwanese LCCs: Average 30% fare reduction on Narita and Kansai routes
  
  
  

Hong Kong Airlines explained that "the load factor is significantly below expectations" and offered free rebooking to existing reservation holders. According to estimates by Bloomberg Intelligence, as of May, bookings for flights from Hong Kong to Japan had decreased by 50% compared to the same month last year, with a sharp drop of 83% for June and July.news.com.aubloomberg.com

4. Affected Regions: The Double Whammy of "Reputational Damage"

Cancellations are concentrated more on regional airports than in Osaka or Tokyo. In Tokushima Prefecture, a single regular charter flight used to attract about 40,000 people annually, but 80% of that has disappeared. In Miyazaki Prefecture, the cancellation rate for July bookings on accommodation websites has reached 60%, with tourism operators lamenting that it "hurts more than COVID."washingtonpost.com

5. Reactions of the Japanese Government and Local Authorities

• Japan Meteorological Agency: Officially denied the possibility of predicting earthquakes at specific times during a regular press conference in May

• Japan Tourism Agency: Released an emergency promotional video advocating for a "safe Japan"

• Tokushima, Tottori, and Miyazaki Prefectures: Established a task force for countering reputational damage and published FAQs in English and Chinese
  
  
  

Ryoichi Nomura, Director of the Earthquake and Tsunami Monitoring Division of the Japan Meteorological Agency, urged people not to be swayed by information lacking scientific basis and to take appropriate disaster prevention actions.washingtonpost.com

6. Challenges of Social Media in Facing Misinformation

The current uproar was made real by three factors: ① a track record of being "partially accurate" in the past, ② the specificity of numbers and dates, and ③ Japan's geographical characteristic as a country prone to earthquakes. Compared to the early days of social media, the speed of dissemination and the user base have increased dramatically, with short videos having a particularly strong visual impact. While platform companies are advancing "labeling of reliable primary information" and "fact-checking collaborations," they remain vulnerable to culturally dependent "spiritual information."

7. "The Real Risk" — The Nankai Trough Megaquake Scenario

The Japanese government anticipates a Nankai Trough megaquake could occur with a 70-80% probability within the next 30 years, with potential damages reaching up to 1,410 trillion yen. Following the M7.1 earthquake off the coast of Miyazaki in August 2024, the government released its first scenario including the risk of widespread power outages lasting over half a day. Citizens should prepare not for the "fear of specific dates," but for the "ever-present possibility" of a megaquake.washingtonpost.com

8. The Forefront of Risk Management in the Tourism Industry

• Dynamic Cancellation Policy: Instantly changes refund conditions in response to earthquake information

• Insurance Products: New plans offer full compensation if an earthquake of seismic intensity 5 or higher is observed during travel

• Crisis Communication: Local governments and airlines jointly conduct live SNS broadcasts to share scientific insights
  
  

Despite the headwinds, popular tourist destinations like Kyoto and Nara continue to maintain high visitor numbers, with "effective information dissemination" being key.theguardian.com

9. What We Can Do—Calmness and Preparedness Protect Tourism

1. Verify Information Sources: Prioritize official announcements from government and research institutions.

2. Utilize Travel Insurance: Always check for special clauses covering cancellation fees and repatriation costs.

3. Share Disaster Literacy: Share emergency evacuation routes and emergency kits with family and companions.

4. Suppress the Spread of Rumors: Do not repost unverified information. Use platform reporting features if you encounter fake news.
   
   

Conclusion

The "July 5th Great Disaster" theory, which originated from a manga excerpt, resulted in tangible effects such as reduced flights by airlines. However, scientifically pinpointing the date of an earthquake is impossible, and Japan's public institutions unanimously deny the rumors. While the tourism industry is trying to minimize the impact through risk communication and flexible compensation systems, ultimately, it is our individual information literacy that can cut off these rumors. Living in a country prone to earthquakes, it can be said that an attitude of "enjoying while being prepared" is required for travel.

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