Sanctions to "Automatically Revive" in Late September? The Final Button Pressed by E3: France, Germany, and the UK Reconsider Iran Sanctions

Europe "E3" to Trigger "Snapback"—Will Iran Sanctions Be Reinstated in 30 Days?

On August 28, 2025, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany (collectively known as E3) officially initiated the "snapback" procedure to reinstate United Nations sanctions on Iran at the UN Security Council. The design is for the old sanctions to be reinstated in full 30 days after activation, making late September (around September 27-28 Japan time) the last practical chance for diplomacy. While emphasizing that "the window for diplomacy remains open," the E3 cited the prolonged violations of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) as the reason.ReutersGOV.UK

Why Snapback Now?

As of July, the E3 had proposed a "lifeline proposal" that included extending the framework of Security Council Resolution 2231. The conditions were (1) immediate resumption of negotiations, (2) full compliance with IAEA obligations, and (3) concrete responses to concerns about high-enriched uranium (HEU) stockpiles—but they did not receive satisfactory answers, reaching the end-of-August deadline, according to their explanation.GOV.UKFrench Diplomacy

The IAEA has repeatedly warned that Iran's enrichment level has risen to near weapons-grade levels. Reports in Western media also suggest that a June attack, attributed to Israel and the United States, damaged nuclear-related facilities, further obscuring the inspection environment. While Iran consistently claims "peaceful use," the E3 remains firm in its belief that it exceeds civilian purposes.The Soufan CenterReuters

What Happens in 30 Days?

If the snapback is completed, sanctions against Iran based on six past Security Council resolutions will automatically be reinstated. The sanctions cover a wide range including finance, arms transfers, missile programs, nuclear-related activities, shipping, and insurance, exerting definite pressure to shrink Iran's economy and foreign transactions. The procedure is designed to take effect in 30 days without being affected by vetoes.Reuters

Tehran's Reaction and Rebuttal

In response to the E3's notification, Iranian officials condemned it as an "illegal move undermining diplomacy" and immediately declared their stance not to succumb to pressure. There are also reports of hardline statements indicating a willingness to reduce cooperation with the IAEA if sanctions are reinstated. Domestically, there is ongoing factional conflict within the regime between opposition to external pressure and economic hardship.ReutersThe Guardian

E3's Strategy: Balancing Pressure and "Escape Routes"

In a joint statement, the E3 foreign ministers emphasized that "the process of reinstating sanctions is a means to promote negotiations, and the path to returning to the agreement remains open." In fact, the European side suggests room to halt (or reset) the procedure if a "minimum agreement" can be reached within these 30 days. The key points are the full resumption of IAEA inspections and the containment of HEU stockpiles.Auswärtiges AmtPBS

Background: The Stalling of the JCPOA and the "Last Thread"

The 2015 agreement was a "barter of mutual compliance" that imposed strict restrictions on Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for lifting sanctions, but the balance was disrupted by the U.S. withdrawal in 2018. Since then, Europe has strived to keep the agreement alive, but trust has been decisively eroded by a chain of cross-border attacks and escalating regional conflicts. According to a summary by the UK Parliament's research department, the E3 had declared early on that they would not shy away from "snapback."researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk

How Did Social Media React? (Highlights)

• Government Officials' Announcements (Official Accounts)
  The German Foreign Ministry (@GermanyDiplo) posted, "Formally notified the Security Council of the seriousness of JCPOA non-compliance and activated #snapback." The French Foreign Ministry's English account (@francediplo_EN) also posted similar content, showing the unity of the E3. The UK government reiterated the July "lifeline proposal" and its conditions in a joint statement on gov.uk.X (formerly Twitter)GOV.UK

• Media Coverage and Comment Sections
  Reuters and public broadcaster PBS reported "reinstatement in 30 days" and "room for diplomacy remains" as breaking news. In various threads linked to these reports, opinions were divided between "double standards" and "necessary for deterrence."ReutersPBS

• Voices of Citizens (Examples)
  In a Facebook post by FT, there were criticisms of "double standards," saying "the West is quick with Iran but lenient with Israel," while others supported it as a "rational measure to stop nuclear proliferation" (short comments from real-name users). Public opinion on social media is clearly polarized.Facebook

• Position of Iranian Dissidents
  The communication team of the Reza Pahlavi faction welcomed the "immediate snapback" in a statement on X. In the context of advocating for regime change and the restoration of civil liberties, they positioned sanctions as a "lever of pressure."X (formerly Twitter)

In summary,officials emphasize "balancing pressure and dialogue.".The reaction of general users is divided between those supporting "nuclear non-proliferation deterrence" and those criticizing "selective sanctions by the West.".

Impact Assessment: Energy, Finance, Regional Security

1. Energy and Shipping: The risk premium for tanker insurance and ports may rise again. The re-imposition of restrictions on shipping, insurance, and settlements exerts psychological upward pressure on the spot oil market.Reuters

2. Financial Transactions: Further detachment from dollar and euro settlement networks stimulates domestic discontent through foreign currency shortages and inflation.Reuters

3. Regional Security: Whether the escalation cycle of cross-border attacks can be broken depends on the full resumption of inspections and the containment of external supply of missile/drone technology.France 24
   
   

Scenarios for the Next 30 Days

• A) Halt with "Minimum Package": Full resumption of IAEA inspections + freezing and removal of HEU stockpiles, with the E3 considering resetting (or halting) the procedure. While challenging, it is the most market-stabilizing.Auswärtiges AmtGOV.UK

• B) Prolonged Formal Battle: While informal consultations continue at the Security Council, the situation on the ground destabilizes due to exchanges between the parties. The risk of limited military actions or cyberattacks increases.euronews

• C) Full Reinstatement: The old sanctions are reinstated in full after 30 days. Iran further reduces cooperation with the IAEA, leading to prolonged stagnation in dialogue with the West. Regional risks and upward pressure on prices remain.Reuters
  
  

Editorial Comment (Perspective)

This time, the E3 has prominently emphasized "pressure to advance negotiations." Since the U.S. withdrawal in 2018, the "mutuality" of the agreement has collapsed, but the legal design of the snapback (the 30-day rule to avoid vetoes) was precisely such a "final safety device." The question is whether the sanctions will become an incentive for behavioral change or lead to further isolation and retaliation##HTML_TAG_