The Impact of Declining Global Birth Rates: The World Enters an Era of Child Shortage ─ The Future of Society Shaped by the "Choice Not to Have Children"

Introduction: The Quiet Shock of "Child Shortage"

The NPR podcast program on July 16, State of the World, highlighted the fact that "babies are no longer being born around the world." Host Sarah McCammon and others reported that birth rates are declining "faster than expected" not only in the United States but also in Europe and East Asia.NCPR. The program introduced a couple from North Carolina, Ben and Sarah Brewinton, who decided not to have children due to reasons such as "lack of financial means," "concerns about climate change," and "prioritizing self-realization."

1. Understanding Global Declining Birth Rates Through Data

According to Wikipedia, based on estimates from the United Nations Population Division (UNPD), the global TFR fell to 2.3 in 2022, and it is likely that it has already fallen below the population replacement level (2.2) in 2023.Wikipedia.

• Americas: 1.8

• Europe: 1.6

• Asia: 2.2 (with South Korea at 0.78, Taiwan at 0.99, and Japan at 1.26 being the lowest levels)
  When the birth rate falls below 2.1, it becomes difficult to maintain the population through natural increase alone. In fact, Japan's birth rate fell below 750,000 in 2023, and a "natural population decline" of about 400,000 people annually has become established due to the difference with the death rate.
  
  
  

2. Why Are People Not Having Children? Understanding the Complex Factors

1. Economic Costs
   Soaring housing prices, childcare costs, and educational expenses are common challenges in developed countries. In South Korea, the "employment ice age" for the younger generation and difficulties with housing loans are intensifying the avoidance of childbirth.Wikipedia.

2. Career Continuity and Gender Disparity
   In Japan, choosing to work shorter hours after returning from maternity leave can limit promotion opportunities, making women's careers more likely to be sacrificed.

3. Diversification of Values and Self-Realization
   Households known as "DINKs (Double Income No Kids)" are expanding, investing resources in travel, hobbies, and side jobs.

4. Climate Change and Future Uncertainty
   The "environmental childbirth avoidance," driven by the desire not to put more strain on the planet, is prominent among millennials and later generations.
   
   
   

3. The "Anger" and "Resignation" Reflected on Social Media

On the Reddit women's forum r/TwoXChromosomes, there is an outpouring of anger over the discussion of birth rates being used as an "excuse to restrict women's rights." Posts questioning "Are they trying to take away even the freedom not to have children?" quickly garnered thousands of agreements.Reddit.

"Those concerned about birth rates only see women as 'convenient labor.'"
"It's regressive to be told 'not to have children' the more educated you are."
These voices have trended on X (formerly Twitter) with hashtags like "#ChildFree" and "#Overpopulation," making them visible.

4. Can Policies Be Effective? The Search by Countries Worldwide

Experts point out that without parallel efforts in gender equality and work style reform, merely providing financial incentives will not easily lead to a recovery in birth rates.

5. Economic Impact: The Equation of "Population x Productivity"

According to Wikipedia's "Economic Impact of Population Decline," GDP is determined by the total population x GDP per capita, so if population decline surpasses productivity improvements, there is a high possibility of falling into a "permanent recession."Wikipedia.

• Rising Dependency Ratio: In Japan, the working-age population supporting one person aged 65 or older was 5.8 in 1990, but it is predicted to drop to 1.4 by 2050.

• Strain on Pension and Healthcare Finances: In China, it is estimated that pension funds will be depleted by 2035.
  These structural issues will take decades to recover birth rates, so accepting immigrants and **dramatically improving labor productivity (utilizing AI and robotics)** are realistic short- to medium-term responses.
  
  
  

6. Still, Those Who Want to Have Children

Another NPR report introduced the Ajar family in Georgia, USA, who are expecting their ninth child. Large families are highlighted as model cases for "encouraging having many children," but they are supported by the strong backing of grandparents and community support.NCPR. In urban areas where nuclear families are prevalent, it is difficult to replicate, and the construction of "shared parenting infrastructure" is needed.

7. Future Scenarios

Conclusion: Towards a Society That Doesn't Fear "Declining Birth Rates" Too Much

Declining birth rates indeed pose significant challenges to the economy and social security. However, it is entirely possible to design a "population-shrinking society" through technology and institutional reform while respecting women's choices and the global environment. As pointed out by the NPR program, the simple narrative of "having more children solves everything" is already over. What we are being asked is whether we can envision a new social contract that balances respect for diverse lives with a sustainable economic system.

Reference Articles