The Birth of Elon Musk's "American Party" ─ The Next Gamble of the "World's Richest Man" Who Parted Ways with Trump

photo:Trevor Cokley / DVIDS

1 Declaration on a Saturday afternoon, just 44 characters

"Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom." — At 1:18 PM Eastern Time on July 5, Elon Musk posted this on his own platform, X. He continued, "By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it!" boasting the results of a follower poll. The poll began at midnight the previous day, gathering over 10 million votes with approximately 80% in favor.twitter.comtwitter.com

2 Break with the Big Beautiful Bill

The establishment of the new party is seen as a countermeasure to President Trump's second-term flagship bill, the "Big Beautiful Bill." The bill is estimated to create an additional fiscal deficit of about $3.3 trillion over ten years, and Musk has harshly criticized it, saying, "This will bankrupt the country." The rift between the two has rapidly widened, with Trump hinting at "cutting subsidies to Musk's companies." The "strongest tag team" in politics and business has walked the path of rupture.reuters.comtheguardian.com

3 What is the 'America Party'?

Musk's basic principles are the four pillars of "fiscal soundness," "reduction of bureaucracy," "thorough support for technological innovation," and "protection of freedom of expression." The party name simply bears "America," representing "the 80% of the population not swayed by the extremes of Democrats and Republicans." He plans to allocate over $1 billion as the first-year activity fund, immediately repurposing the existing network of the political action committee (America PAC).en.wikipedia.org

4 Republican unrest and stock market turmoil

Within the Republican Party, there are growing voices fearing the loss of seats due to "vote splitting." The Senate Majority Leader anonymously stated, "He could Nader-ize us (a nightmare return of Ralph Nader in 2000)." The market also reacted. Tesla shares plunged as much as 8% compared to the previous day on the day of the declaration. A fund preparing for a new ETF listing announced a postponement.reuters.com

5 Enthusiasm and division on social media

• Voices of support

  • "We finally have a party that actually builds rockets AND roads!" (X user @SpacePolicy)

  • "Techno-optimism meets fiscal realism. Count me in." (LinkedIn post)

• Skeptics and opponents

  • The official account of MSNBC's political program pointed out, "Musk lacks the ground game that built MAGA."twitter.com

  • Environmental groups using the hashtag #TeslaTakedown are planning protests, demanding "prioritize the planet over the economy."en.wikipedia.org

6 Experts on the 'odds of success'

Election data analyst Nate Silver, based on voter awareness surveys, estimates that "if 15% of centrist votes flow in, it could become a kingmaker with 30 seats in the House." On the other hand, historian Julian Zelizer is skeptical, stating, "The U.S. electoral system is extremely disadvantageous to third parties. Even Ross Perot couldn't achieve it."

7 Experimental ground for digital elections

Musk declared, "Both party conventions and policy deliberations will be conducted entirely on X Spaces." The aim is to enhance transparency by adopting a decentralized voting system. The blockchain developer community is divided, with some saying, "There is verifiability, but it's still maturing as civic tech."

8 International repercussions

EU officials expressed "caution against the concentration of political power by giant IT companies," and in Canada, opposition lawmakers suggested the possibility of "emergence of imitation cases." A state-run newspaper in Beijing commented, "Tech capital accelerates the division of U.S. politics."

9 The memory of 'DOGE'—the light and shadow of fiscal and administrative reform

The "Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)," where Musk served as the first director, reduced 27,000 federal employees by March, receiving mixed reviews. While praised by market advocates, some regions experienced rising unemployment due to public service cuts, posing a challenge in explaining the "pain of reform" along with the establishment of the new party.en.wikipedia.org

10 Simulation of the 2026 midterm elections

The think tank "Third Way"

• Scenario A (Return to Republican conservative base) → America Party gains 3 seats in the House, slight decrease for Trump faction

• Scenario B (Absorption of economic right-wing) → Gains 15 seats in the House and 2 seats in the Senate, holding the casting vote

• Scenario C (Massive influx of young and independent voters) → Gains over 35 seats in the House, becoming the key to coalition

predicts. However, the research director points out, "The key is not funding but candidate discovery. There is a lack of a talent pool at the local government level."

11 Is Musk's true intention fiscal discipline or the future?

Regarding the true aim of establishing the new party, a former aide testifies, "Fiscal discipline is just a front. In reality, it's 'policy internalization' to personally lead the national strategy for generative AI and space development." Indeed, the party platform draft includes policies favorable to tech companies, such as an AI supervisory agency and an orbital infrastructure investment bank.

12 "Politics is hardware, a party is software"

In X Spaces, Musk stated, "Politics is hardware; a party is software. If the hardware is broken, you install new software." His approach of appealing to the public with tech metaphors is in full display.

13 The Trump camp's response

While the White House avoided official comments, ruling party leaders anonymously suggested a "re-examination of federal subsidies." Trump disparaged at a Florida rally, "Elon’s party is just a sideshow," but the audience's reaction was lukewarm.

14 Shareholders, customers, voters—threefold stakeholders

Musk continues his "multi-threaded life" crossing space, social media, and politics, despite demands from Tesla shareholders to "focus on management." If the political venture fails, it could have serious repercussions on the business sector as well.

15 Conditions to overcome the 'third-party wall'

Experts cite essential conditions

1. Regional concentration strategy—Concentrate resources in a few battleground states rather than nationwide expansion

2. Unified candidate branding—Create a narrative beyond "Musk's new party"

3. Hybrid of online and on-the-ground organization—Convert SNS mobilization into ground warfare

16 Conclusion—Will it "change the game" or be a "fleeting firework"?

Examples of sustained third forces in modern U.S. politics are rare. However, with a massive following, ample funds, and the explosive power of social media opinion, Musk might rewrite the conventional playbook. As the platformization of politics progresses, the 'America Party' could become a touchstone for American democracy. Heading into 2026, U.S. politics has plunged into "space-level" chaos.