The Conflict Between China and the United States Intensifies in Argentina? A Debate Over Cold War Era Thinking

1｜The Spark of a Single Word

"President Milei is determined to 'expel' China from Argentina." On October 9, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant uttered this statement during a TV appearance, right after the U.S. solidified a $20 billion currency support (swap line and peso purchase) for Argentina 【U.S. major media outlets】. The market was relieved, causing a rebound in stocks and bonds, but it sparked a different reaction in the diplomatic arena. On the following day, October 11, the Chinese Embassy in Buenos Aires issued a statement fiercely criticizing the U.S. as having a **"Cold War mentality"** and emphasized that "Latin America is no one's backyard" 【Bloomberg Línea/La Nación】. Reuters

2｜The Current State of the "Triangle Relationship"

Over the past decade, Argentina has expanded its economic ties with China. The presence is significant with a $18 billion yuan swap, trade expansion, and space-related facilities in Patagonia. Meanwhile, the Milei administration, initially tough on China, has recently adjusted its tone, calling China a "major commercial partner." The large-scale U.S. support coincides with this, reigniting the U.S.-China influence struggle with Argentina as the focal point 【InfoMoney】. InfoMoney

3｜Where Are the "Conditions"?

The U.S. framework, formally aimed at market stabilization, involves currency swaps and foreign exchange intervention. Despite criticisms that it favors the administration and ruling party as "pre-election funding," the details of the negotiation conditions remain unclear, and at least Milei himself has stated that "cutting the China swap is not a condition" 【InfoMoney】. However, Besant has mentioned opening up resources like rare earths and uranium, making it inevitable that the handling of underground resources and regulations will become a political issue 【InfoMoney/WP】. InfoMoney

4｜Trade and Tariffs, Another Powder Keg

The "re-strengthening" of tariffs on China is also underway. From November 1, the U.S. has shown a hardline stance by considering up to 100% additional tariffs on Chinese products and important software export restrictions, which also ties into countermeasures against China's rare earth export restrictions. Argentina's position in the raw material supply chain may rise, but the risk of being caught in the "retaliation rally" between the U.S. and China is also increasing 【InfoMoney】. InfoMoney

5｜Market: "Short-term Positive, Long-term Unclear"

Immediately after the announcement, a rebound in peso purchases, government bonds, and stock prices was reported. In the short term, the improvement in funding and reversal of sentiment leads to "buybacks." However, the structural issues of inflation, exchange rate management, and foreign reserves remain unresolved. The swap may serve as an "oxygen tank," but it won't become the respirator itself 【Reuters/AP】. Reuters

6｜How It Appeared on Social Media (Summary of Reactions)

• Spread by Latin American Media: The embassy's classic phrase "Latin America is no one's backyard" spread on X. Journalists and energy analysts from various countries shared it by quoting the embassy's official post 【Bloomberg Línea/X post】. Bloomberg Línea

• Conservative Influencers: Voices evaluating it as "supporting the breakaway from dependence on China" and "opening rare earths and uranium to the U.S. is an opportunity" 【Shared posts on X】. X (formerly Twitter)

• Critics and Progressives: Within the U.S., there was backlash with questions like "Why $20 billion overseas?" and "What about domestic farmers and finances?" The framing of **"cross-border handouts"** was prominent in Facebook posts and comment sections 【WP's editorial introduction/U.S. local station FB post】. The Washington Post

• Division Within Argentina: On Instagram, posts supporting the "realistic approach of aligning with the U.S." and those dismissing it as a "political show for the midterm elections" coexisted. There were also a significant number of voices advocating **"do not burn bridges with China"** 【Multiple Instagram posts】. Instagram

※Due to platform specifications, only summaries of individual posts are quoted here. Please refer to the links for the original text.

7｜The "Two Calculations" Remaining for Argentina

1. Financial Calculations: Alignment with the IMF, accumulation of foreign reserves, and exchange rate buffers. The U.S. scheme buys "time," but spending cuts and reactivation of growth engines are necessary.

2. Geopolitical Calculations: China's swap network and trade, the U.S.'s financial reach. Neither can be lost. Practical diplomacy inevitably becomes "ambivalent diplomacy."

8｜What Could Happen in the Next Three Weeks (Until the Midterm Elections on 10/26)

• Policy Announcement Rush: Keeping the market connected with "pre-releases" of public bids and deregulation in mining and energy.

• Re-adjustment of Messages to China: Complete decoupling is unrealistic. Moving towards a **"selective de-risking"** approach.

• Fluctuations in Social Media Opinion: Polarization of support and opposition progresses, making it more likely to correlate with volatile markets.

• Tariff Headline Shock: If headlines about U.S.-China tariffs rise, Argentinian-related stocks and the peso become more sensitive.

9｜Conclusion—The True Meaning of "Cold War Mentality"

China's criticism of the "Cold War mentality" is not mere rhetoric. It refers to the moment when the U.S., seeking to expand its sphere of influence through dollar liquidity, and China, engaging through yuan swaps and tangible investments, collided in the same target country. For Argentina, the optimal solution might be to alternately use the two competing "oxygen tanks". However, in the meantime, the political calendar and commodity markets won't wait.