"Collapse" Before 50% Tariff - Shocking 80% Drop in Brazilian Beef Exports to the U.S.

1. Out of Ammunition Before Tariffs Take Effect—An Unprecedented 80% Drop

"President Trump's 'Tarifaço (massive tariff)' is set to take effect on August 1, but the ammunition has already been exhausted." Brazilian newspaper InfoMoney headlined this on the 22nd. In reality, the export volume of Brazilian beef to the U.S., which stood at 47,800 tons in April, plummeted to 27,400 tons in May, 18,200 tons in June, and a mere 9,700 tons by July 21. The drop rate is approximately 80%. These figures are based on official government data (Secex/MDIC) and ABIEC statistics.InfoMoney

2. The Largest "Growth Market" Turns into a Risk Factor

Brazil was experiencing a "golden period" in the first half of 2025, with U.S. exports reaching 181,500 tons, a 112.6% increase year-on-year. The U.S. was the second-largest customer after China, with sales exceeding $1.04 billion. However, the momentum of the trade surplus accumulated since the beginning of the year completely reversed with the announcement of a 50% tariff. Even when exceeding the export quota of 65,000 tons, the "forequarter meat (hamburger meat)" sold at a discount, quickly falling below the break-even line.InfoMoney

3. Industry Outcry—"Line Stoppage, Employment Impact"

"At this tax rate, the product itself labeled 'for North America' will disappear." ABIEC President Roberto Perosa stated this at a press conference on the 15th, revealing that 30,000 tons are already "stranded" at ports and on the high seas. Major meat companies JBS and Marfrig have suspended some lines, and temporary layoffs have begun in Mato Grosso do Sul state.economia.uol.com.br

In an interview with radio station CBN on the 10th, he also criticized, "The U.S. has entered the worst cattle cycle in 80 years, which was actually favorable for Brazilian products. This decision is a typical example of 'politics destroying the economy.'" *A long-term cycle where domestic supply is strained due to a decrease in breeding numbers.cbn

4. Government's "Painful Two-Pronged Approach"—Negotiation and Market Diversification

Under the Lula administration, Vice President Alckmin is leading an emergency task force, presenting a two-pronged approach: (1) lobbying to highlight the risk of price increases for U.S. consumers and the meat processing industry, and (2) promoting exports to the Middle East and Southeast Asia. The Brazilian Export Bank (BNDESex) is also considering short-term bridging loans. However, diplomatic sources unanimously agree that it is extremely difficult to overturn political decisions in a U.S. presidential election year.InfoMoney

5. Temperature Differences Within the U.S.—Producers Applaud, Dining Out Cries Out

The National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA) welcomed the move in a statement, calling it a victory for protecting U.S. farmers by eliminating non-competitive cheap imported meat. In contrast, major fast-food chains warned that a more than 20% increase in procurement costs would make menu price revisions inevitable. At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, beef futures rose, reaching an all-time high in the third week of July.

6. Social Media's "Humorous Anger"—Hashtag Battles and Vampetaço

From the day after the tariff announcement, "TaxadFoiTaxado (Taxed and Got Taxed)" trended number one on Brazil's X (formerly Twitter). Additionally, on the 10th, a net protest called "Vampetaço," which involved a massive posting of "shocking nudes" once revealed by former soccer representative Vampeta in a men's magazine, attacked the official account of the U.S. president. The protest is also linked to dissatisfaction with BRICS advocacy and PIX investigations, continuing intermittently since the 16th.Wikipedia

Examples of Posts from Major Media and Influencers

• Official InfoMoney "Export to U.S. Halted, Urgent Shift to Other Countries"X (formerly Twitter)

• Jornal da Record "50% Tariff Spreads to Overall Brazilian Exports"X (formerly Twitter)

• Environmental Account "This is an Opportunity to Rethink the Global Distribution of Amazon Deforestation Beef"X (formerly Twitter)

7. Ripple Effects on the Macro Economy—Exchange Rates, Stocks, Inflation

In the second week of July, the Bovespa index fell for seven consecutive trading days, led by the meat and logistics sectors, pushing down the market capitalization by 1.4%. The exchange rate saw the real fall by 2.1% against the dollar immediately after the tariff report. The direct impact on the domestic CPI is limited, but there is an outlook that "the surplus export volume being redirected domestically will temporarily lower wholesale prices, reducing year-end meat prices by 0.3 points" (FGV/Ibre estimate).Portal do Agronegócio

8. Future Scenarios

Most industry stakeholders see "B + partial circumvention exports" as the most likely scenario. The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture anticipates about 150,000 tons of alternative demand through the expansion of halal certification for Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, but the volume and unit price do not match the U.S. market.