Why is Coal Gaining Attention Again in America? — The Trump Administration's Strategy and Its Background

1. What Was Announced—The "Coal Revitalization" by the Numbers

On September 29, the U.S. government announced a package to open 13.1 million acres of public land for coal mining and to invest $625 million for the restart, extension, and modernization of coal-fired power plants. The funds will be allocated for boiler upgrades, wastewater treatment, and support for the restart of aging facilities. Additionally, the royalty rate for mining leases will be effectively reduced from a maximum of 12.5% to 7%, and lease auctions in Alabama, followed by Utah, Montana, and Wyoming were announced. This marks a clear reversal from the freeze during the Biden administration.AP News

2. The Administration's Justification—"Power Demand in the AI Era" and Grid Stability

The administration argues that with electricity demand expected to surpass the previous record in 2024 and the rapid increase in demand from data centers, including AI, coal, with its ability to store fuel, serves as an "insurance" for the power grid. The EIA's short-term outlook and major company analyses also predict an increase in demand for 2025 and 2026, and depending on natural gas price trends, there is a possibility that coal's share in power generation may temporarily recover.Energy Information Administration

3. However, the Market Reality is Harsh—Shrinking Facilities and Advancing Alternatives

According to Reuters, the capacity of coal-fired power plants has shrunk by 43% since 2010 to about 194 GW, and new construction plans amount to only 0.4 GW. Both cost and construction lead times continue to favor natural gas and wind and solar power. Therefore, even if policy temporarily boosts operating rates, the consensus is that a long-term full recovery is limited.Reuters

4. Where Will the Mining Occur?—The Geopolitics of Public Land Leases

Following Alabama (mainly for metallurgical coal), Utah, Montana, and Wyoming are the initial lease targets. There is a possibility that major mining areas like the Powder River Basin may become active again. Alongside land opening, royalty reductions and exemptions are also indicated, designed to enhance the economic viability of operations.Reuters

5. A "Total War" Across Agencies—The Department of the Interior, Department of Energy, and EPA

This package was announced through a collaboration of the Department of the Interior (DOI), the Department of Energy (DOE), and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The DOE officially announced a $625 million investment, while the DOI emphasized the opening of 13.1 million acres and the reduction of royalty rates.The Department of Energy's Energy.gov

Meanwhile, reports of internal communications within some DOE departments advising against the use of terms like "climate change" and "decarbonization" have stirred controversy, making the policy message direction clearer. The department denies a total ban, but confusion persists on the ground.The Guardian

6. Reactions—The Divide Seen in Social Media and Group Statements

Supporters emphasize "grid reliability assurance," "support for manufacturing and steel," and "job maintenance." Industry groups like the National Mining Association (NMA) welcomed it as a **"step forward in securing fuel and defending household budgets."** Unions and local groups in coal-producing states also prominently support it as a livelihood.National Mining Association

Opponents criticize "the selling off of public lands," "the external costs of carbon and air pollution," and "the backflow of renewable energy investments." The NRDC and LCV strongly condemned it as a **"free pass and cash handout,"** with posts and infographics mentioning health impacts and tax burdens spreading on social media.nrdc.org

On social media timelines, ruling party supporters and energy security advocates use hashtags like **#EnergySecurity and #Reliability, while environmentalists counter with #StopCoal and #ActOnClimate—the framing of "power stability" versus "climate and health costs"** directly reflects the public opinion divide. Media outlets are also visualizing this division, drawing significant domestic attention.The Guardian

7. Impact Assessment—The Three Aspects of Rates, Employment, and Health

In the short term, increased operating rates and fuel inventories may help suppress rate volatility in some regions. However, maintenance costs for aging power plants will rise, and even with compliance deferrals for pollution control, the external costs of sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, and PM remain. Long-term statistics show that the expansion of renewables and the decline in gas prices have pushed **coal's share from 50% (2000) to about 15% (2024)**, making it difficult to reverse the trend with policy bias alone.The Guardian

8. The Sustainability of the "Reversal"—The Key is Equipment Lifespan and Competitiveness

The increase in coal may occur temporarily due to sharp rises in natural gas prices or extreme heat or cold. However, the lack of new construction, retirement due to aging, and the speed of renewable energy construction and LCOE decline are structural headwinds, likely limiting it to a **"policy for prolongation."**Reuters

9. Yet Politics Continues—Between "Regional" and "National"

For coal-producing regions, employment and tax revenue are a matter of life and death, and how well **bridging measures (retraining, transmission enhancement, storage and nuclear introduction, regional development) can be advanced in parallel will be key to mitigating backlash and achieving a Just Transition**. The sustainability of policies will also be influenced by the outcome of federal budget and authority allocations in Congress after November.AP News

Key Points (Bullet Reference)

• Restart and expansion of coal leases on 13.1 million acres of public land. **Royalty reduced to 7%**, with bids in Alabama→Utah→Montana→Wyoming.Reuters

• DOE announces a $625 million investment for the extension and modernization of coal-fired power plants.The Department of Energy's Energy.gov

• BLM to conduct bidding, exploration, and exemptions across multiple mining areas, effectively lifting the moratorium.Bureau of Land Management

• Coal's share in power generation has declined from **50% in 2000 to about 15% in 2024** (structural factors).The Guardian

• Capacity reduced by 43%, with new construction plans at 0.4 GW, making long-term reversal difficult.Reuters

• Support: NMA and others emphasize reliability and manufacturing support. Opposition: NRDC and LCV criticize health and fiscal costs.National Mining Association　nrdc.org

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