The Possibility of America Losing Hegemony on the Moon - What Will Happen on the Moon in 2030: China's Realism vs. America's Grand Strategy

The NYT video highlights several reasons why the United States might be at a disadvantage in the new space race centered on the moon. These reasons include a lack of political and budgetary continuity, reliance on complex architectures (such as in-orbit refueling of large landers), and accumulated project delays. In fact, Artemis II has been pushed back to April 2026, and Artemis III has been delayed to mid-2027 or later. Meanwhile, China has clearly stated its government policy of achieving a "manned landing by 2030," with significant tests of the "Chang'e" lander underway. On social media, reactions to the NYT's sense of urgency are mixed, with some defending SpaceX's iterative development approach, others expressing caution about quality and safety culture, and some lamenting the lack of a "national narrative (Why)." The outcome of the race depends on whether the goal is "the first landing" or "sustainable base construction." To avoid falling behind, the U.S. needs to reduce critical paths, ensure long-term legal and budgetary stability, expand international collaboration, and redefine a clear "Why" that gains public consensus.