Trump to Double Tariffs on Spain!? The Tariff Hammer Strikes Again: Trump vs. Spain, on the Frontlines of EU Trade

1. The Hague Shook for 60 Seconds—The Moment of the Statement

On June 25, at a joint press conference during the NATO summit, President Trump singled out Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, saying, "You are the only country not paying 5%. Then you'll pay double in trade," with a firm tonendtvprofit.com. The U.S. President's threat not only froze the venue momentarily but also sent shockwaves through global markets via live streaming.

2. NATO's "5% Rule" and Spain's Refusal

At this summit, a new framework was adopted to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, citing the long-term threat from Russia and shifts in the Middle East and Far Eastapnews.com. However, Spain insisted on a cap of 2.1% due to balancing with social security, asserting that "the capability targets can be achieved" without budgingelpais.com.

3. Immediate Market Reaction

Immediately after Trump's statement, Madrid's IBEX35 expanded its decline to 1.5%, and the STOXX600 across Europe also recorded a 0.6% dropndtvprofit.com. If tariffs become a reality, there is a strong view that Spanish companies' North American sales, especially in automobiles, food, and tourism, will take a significant hit.

4. Exchanges Between the Spanish Government and the EU

Economy and Trade Minister Carlos Cuerpo immediately issued a statement saying, "Negotiations with the U.S. are the exclusive prerogative of the European Commission, and there will be no bilateral concessions," showing a firm stanceelpais.com. Brussels also hinted at updating a retaliatory tariff list (totaling 95 billion euros), emphasizing, "We will counteract as one with all member states."

5. Legal and Institutional Issues

If the U.S. introduces "country-specific tariffs" targeting only EU member states, it could violate the WTO's most-favored-nation principle. On the other hand, the U.S. Trade Expansion Act Section 232 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) grant the president broad discretion for security reasons, and the Trump administration has a history of abusing these provisions in the past with steel and aluminum.

6. The Legacy of Trump's "Hammer Diplomacy"

During the first administration in 2018, the pattern of "demand→refusal→tariff" was already established with retaliatory tariffs on France's digital tax and tariffs on Canada's dairy products. This time, too, the same script is expected, with a strong stance for domestic audiences while ultimately leaving a permanent tariff of about 5-10%.

7. Social Media Outrage and Memeification

• Reddit/r/europe saw sarcastic comments like "Trump is a one-trick pony. Problem? Tariffs. Solution? Tariffs" rise to the top commentsreddit.com.

• In the Spanish-speaking world on X (formerly Twitter), the hashtag #NATO5NoEsJusto trended, with backlash such as "Are you telling us to buy tanks instead of spending on education?"eleconomista.es.

• Even within the U.S., criticism from conservatives is growing, saying "Don't fuel inflation with tariffs," and the cool reactions of Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance have been reportedpolitico.com.

8. Three Scenarios Seen by Experts

(Based on estimates by European think tank Bruegel, created by the author)

9. Repercussions on Spanish Domestic Politics

For Prime Minister Sánchez, who is struggling with stagnant approval ratings due to corruption allegations, "taking a hard stance against Trump" is seen as essential for maintaining centripetal force in the left-wing coalition. Meanwhile, the conservative opposition People's Party (PP) criticizes that "international credibility has been damaged" and is demanding an early general election.

10. Conclusion

President Trump's tariff card also seems to aim at transforming NATO's "5% rule" into a de facto "conscription tax." The diplomatic approach of packaging tariffs and security will likely serve as a litmus test for the EU's internal cohesion. With little time left until the July 9 trade deadline, not only Spain but all of Europe seems to be in for a summer of rapidly searching for the "next move."