Even if He Holds a Medal, He Cannot Be a Laureate—The Distance Between Trump and the Nobel Peace Prize

Trump's "Peace Prize Aspiration" Resurfaces Ahead of the Announcement

One of the world's most powerful politicians is eager to receive the world's most renowned peace prize.

Ahead of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize announcement, Donald Trump's desire to win the award is once again in the spotlight. On October 9, Germany's public broadcaster ARD's news site "tagesschau" reported that despite his strong ambition, experts believe his chances of winning are low.

Trump has repeatedly claimed that he deserves the peace prize, citing his diplomatic achievements, such as "ending eight wars."

However, this is his personal claim and not a universally recognized evaluation by the international community. To assess his achievements, it is necessary to examine each case individually to determine how decisive his mediation was, whether the cessation of hostilities has continued, and whether it has led to resolving the conflicts themselves.

This topic goes beyond a mere character study of "Trump wanting the prize." It also raises the issue of the distance between the achievements claimed by political leaders and the peace felt by people living in conflict zones.

Even Among 287 Candidates, Officially, Who Was Nominated Remains Unknown

According to the official announcement by the Norwegian Nobel Committee, 208 individuals and 79 organizations, totaling 287 candidates, were nominated for the 2026 Peace Prize.

It is important to note that the names of the candidates are not officially disclosed. Information regarding nominations and selections is generally kept confidential for 50 years. Even if nominators reveal "I nominated this person," it does not imply confirmation or endorsement by the committee.

According to the original article, Israel, Pakistan, and Cambodia have each reportedly nominated Trump. However, being "reported as nominated," "highly regarded by the committee," and "close to winning" are different matters.

The committee itself explains that the mere fact of being nominated does not confer official endorsement or honor.

The title of "Nobel Peace Prize Nominee" carries a strong impression. It is necessary to distinguish between the resonance of those words and the actual standing in the selection process.

Doubts About the Self-Assessment of "Ending Eight Wars"

Karim Haggag from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), introduced in the original article, does not dismiss Trump's achievements entirely. However, he points out that the list of accomplishments Trump claims is exaggerated.

What is important in this evaluation is that it does not boil down to a binary choice of "achievements or none."

Bringing warring parties to the negotiating table, stopping fighting even for a short period, and creating room for humanitarian aid each have significance. Actual contributions should not be denied based on personal feelings towards a politician.

However, there is a significant gap between involvement in ceasefire agreements and the evaluation of having ended a war.

If fighting resumes, civilians are once again forced to flee. Even if agreements are signed, if safety is not secured and people cannot regain their homes or jobs, peace does not reach daily life.

It's not just about how many agreements were announced, but how long those agreements functioned and whose lives and livelihoods they protected. This perspective is essential when considering Trump's achievements.

The Evaluation of the Gaza Ceasefire and the Reality of Stalled Reconstruction

tagesschau cites the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip about a year ago as an effort for which Trump received recognition.

On the other hand, it presented a harsh view regarding the subsequent reconstruction. The "Board of Peace" established by Trump was supposed to handle the reconstruction, but it reportedly made little progress, and sufficient aid funds have not been flowing.

There is a clear moment when a ceasefire is announced. Leaders stand together, the agreement document is shown, and the world media reports it.

However, reconstruction requires a long time. It involves restoring access to water and electricity, rebuilding healthcare and education, and reconstructing the lives of those who lost their homes. This work is not easily captured in a single photo like a summit meeting.

Therefore, when evaluating a politician's achievements, it is necessary to follow up "after the announcement."

Creating an organization, promising funding, and ensuring aid reaches the field are separate stages. When evaluating contributions to a ceasefire, the subsequent stagnation cannot be considered separately.

How Does the War Against Iran Align with the Appeal for the Peace Prize?

Another significant factor cited in the original article as a barrier to winning the award is the war against Iran. The article reports that the U.S. has been at war with Iran since February 2026.

Trump has also explained his involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict as a contribution to peace. Meanwhile, the evaluation of current military actions is being questioned.

In the field of diplomacy, there is a debate that pressure and deterrence can promote negotiations. However, explaining the use of military force as being for peace and the realization of peace as a result are not the same.

What is needed for judgment is verification of whether combat and damage have decreased, whether room for negotiation has expanded, and whether mechanisms to prevent future conflicts have been established.

A politician who contributed to mediation in one region might advance a war in another. This is precisely why evaluation is difficult. It is necessary to look at the results produced by the entire policy, not just the achievements emphasized by the individual.

Even If Given a Medal, He Does Not Become a Nobel Laureate

An event symbolizing the debate over Trump and the Peace Prize occurred this January.

Maria Corina Machado, the Venezuelan opposition leader who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, gave her medal to Trump.

Here, it is necessary to separate "the medal" from "the honor as a laureate."

In an official statement on January 16, the Nobel side explained that the medal and diploma are physical symbols indicating the award, and the honor of the award itself is inseparable from the laureate chosen by the committee.

Laureates can give, sell, or donate their medals. However, this does not change the name of the laureate.

In other words, even if Trump possesses Machado's medal, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate remains Machado.

The original article also mentions that FIFA awarded Trump a newly established peace prize. However, this is a different award from the Nobel Peace Prize. Being honored by a different organization must be distinguished from being selected by the Nobel Committee.

Welcomes and Criticisms on Social Media—Differences in Evaluation Shown in January Posts

Reactions on social media regarding this issue were divided based on how the transfer of the medal was perceived.

What is introduced here are posts about the events of January 2026, not reactions to the original article from October 9. Moreover, this is not a comprehensive investigation of the original posts but is limited to cases confirmed through reports.

According to Latin America Reports, Trump revealed on his SNS "Truth Social" that he received the medal and expressed words of welcome, describing it as a wonderful act of mutual respect.

On the other hand, Raymond Johansen, Secretary-General of the Norwegian People's Aid and former leader of Oslo's city government, strongly criticized it on Facebook. According to the paper, his post was to the effect that it was a very shameful act that damaged the evaluation of a globally important award.

What both parties see is different. Trump received gratitude and respect towards himself, while Johansen saw the issue of the award's prestige being politically exploited.

Apart from SNS posts, the paper also introduced voices of supporters who evaluated Machado's actions as a demonstration of support for democracy and freedom in Venezuela.

However, from these cases, one cannot conclude that "the whole world supported it" or "SNS was full of criticism." What can be confirmed is the gap in evaluation, where the same transfer of the medal appeared as diplomatic gratitude to some and political exploitation of the award to others.

From Japan's Perspective, More Than Winning, "Has Peace Continued?"

To Japanese readers, this topic might seem like a commotion over the honor desires of a politician from a distant country. However, as a perspective for viewing the news, it includes issues close to home.

When leaders speak of "historic agreements," what should be used to verify those words? After a ceasefire is announced, who follows up on the implementation status as interest wanes?

Predictions of awards and exchanges between leaders easily attract attention. However, from Japan, the following concrete changes should also be observed.

• Is the ceasefire maintained, and has damage to civilians decreased?
• Has the promised aid actually reached those in need?
• Can displaced people safely rebuild their lives?
• Are dialogues and mechanisms in place to prevent the recurrence of armed conflict?

This is not a standard applied only to Trump. Any leader of any country should be similarly questioned about the results if they speak of contributions to peace.

Conversely, there is no need to deny the value of a ceasefire that a politician was involved in just because one does not support them. Concrete achievements should be evaluated, and insufficient points and negative impacts should be examined. This attitude leads to an understanding not swayed by approval or disapproval of the individual.

What Is Being Questioned Is the Achievements Reaching the Ground, Not Words Reaching the Prize

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize announcement is scheduled for October 9 at 11 a.m. Norwegian time, which corresponds to 6 p.m. Japan time.

At this stage before the announcement, it is impossible to definitively say whether Trump will win or lose. The view that "the possibility is low" reported by tagesschau is also a prediction by experts, not the selection result itself.

Nevertheless, the points raised in this discussion are clear. There is a distance between calling one's diplomacy a success and having those achievements internationally recognized. Furthermore, international recognition and the ability of people in conflict zones to live safely are not the same.

Medals can be passed from person to person. However, the achievements of stopping combat, rebuilding lives, and preventing the next conflict cannot be replaced by symbolic gifts.

What we want to witness alongside the name of the laureate is how the lives of people promised peace have actually changed.

Sources

1. tagesschau/ARD "Donald Trump will den Friedensnobelpreis"
   References to Trump's claims, SIPRI researcher's evaluation, Gaza reconstruction, the war against Iran, and FIFA's peace prize.
   https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/trump-friedensnobelpreis-100.html

2. Norwegian Nobel Committee "Nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize 2026"
   Official material confirming the number of candidates for 2026, breakdown, the policy of non-disclosure of candidate names and selection information, and the announcement date.
   https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-releases/nominations-for-the-nobel-peace-prize-2026Nobel Peace Prize

3. Norwegian Nobel Committee "The Nobel Prize and the Laureate Are Inseparable"
   Official statement explaining that even if the ownership of the medal is transferred, the status of the laureate does not change, and that giving or selling the medal is possible.
   https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/press-releases/the-nobel-prize-and-the-laureate-are-inseparableNobel Peace Prize

4. Latin America Reports "From ‘absurd’ to a ‘fight for freedom’: World reacts to Machado gifting Trump Nobel prize"
   Report introducing Trump's Truth Social post, Johansen's Facebook post, and supporters' evaluation of Machado's actions regarding the medal transfer in January 2026. SNS reactions confirmed through the same article.
   https://www.latinamericareports.com/from-absurd-to-a-fight-for-freedom-world-reacts-to-machado-gifting-trump-nobel-prize/13310/Latin America Reports

5. Norwegian Nobel Committee "Press"
   Confirmation of the announcement time and the official explanation that "a nomination does not imply support or honor by the committee."
   https://www.nobelpeaceprize.org/press/