Trump's "10% Additional Tariff" Declaration: Is the BRICS Encirclement the Beginning of a New Cold War?

Prime Minister’s Office (India) — GODL-India

1. "Midnight Post" Shakes the World

"Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. No exceptions!" — At 11:32 PM Washington time on July 6, U.S. President Donald Trump posted this on his favorite platform, Truth Social. Within less than 10 minutes, screenshots spread, instantly occupying two of the top five world trends on X (formerly Twitter).reuters.com

2. Rio's BRICS Summit Sparks Tensions

At the same time, the expanded BRICS (11 countries) had just opened its 17th summit in Rio de Janeiro. The joint statement, without directly naming the U.S., firmly rejected unilateral tariffs and the use of force, and included plans to move away from dollar dependency and expand local currency lending. Trump's "10% declaration of war" came just four hours after the statement was released.reuters.com

3. What is the Expanded BRICS? — Emerging Nations Dislike Being Labeled as "Just for Photo Ops"

The original BRICS was formed in 2009 with four countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China). South Africa later joined, and last year, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE officially became members. Over 30 other countries and regions are seeking observer or associate membership. The U.S. think tank CSIS analyzes that while the GDP-weighted average still doesn't match the G7, BRICS already surpasses major developed countries in population and resources.

4. Immediate Reactions from China, Russia, and South Africa

At a regular press conference on the morning of the 7th, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning criticized, "Tariffs only lead to mutual destruction," emphasizing, "BRICS is not an exclusive military alliance but an open cooperative body." Russian Presidential Spokesman Peskov stated, "We do not target third countries," and South African Department of Trade and Industry spokesperson Kamil Ali said, "We are waiting for an official U.S. letter but wish to continue dialogue."infomoney.com.br

5. Indonesia and Saudi Arabia Caught in a "Dilemma"

The newly joined members are busy adjusting interests. Indonesia's Coordinating Minister Hartarto announced a direct flight from "Rio to Washington" and an emergency consultation schedule with the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). Saudi Arabia has temporarily postponed formal membership, prioritizing "energy cooperation" and keeping a distance. Both countries' GDPs are supported by crude oil and nickel exports to the U.S. market, and the "additional 10% on the U.S." is a blow.reuters.com

6. Within the U.S. — Companies Cry Out, Conservatives Applaud

The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) issued an immediate statement warning, "The cost will ultimately be borne by U.S. consumers." The U.S. Chamber of Commerce also agreed, stating, "Supply chain disruptions will progress, and small businesses will be the first to fall." Meanwhile, conservative influencers in the Republican Party incited on X, "10% is too lenient; impose 100% on BRICS." Over 30,000 likes were received in a short time, and the algorithm recommended "patriotic economy" videos one after another.

7. SNS Pulse: #BRICS2025 and #TariffWar

According to media analysis company Talkwalker, there were 2.1 million related posts within 24 hours of the announcement, peaking at 10 AM Eastern Time on the 7th. The most spread post was Bloomberg's breaking news tweet (184,000 retweets), and the phrase "No exceptions" became a meme, with GIFs of tax rates overflowing from coffee cups flooding the internet. Economist Greg Daco warns, "The foreign exchange market is still calm, but companies may freeze CAPEX within the year."twitter.com

8. The Meaning of "10%" — Prelude to a "Nuclear Option"?

Last year, Trump mentioned he would not hesitate to impose a 100% tariff when BRICS advanced its common currency initiative. This time, the level was "restrained" to 10%, but it is reported that if trade negotiations are not concluded by July 9, letters will be sent to each country to gradually raise it to a maximum of 70% (WSJ). The background includes domestic circumstances where he wants to portray himself as a "tough negotiator" ahead of an election year.wsj.com

9. Market Impact Estimation

Paul Donovan, Chief Economist at UBS Wealth, estimates, "If a 10% tariff is applied to all of BRICS, the U.S. Import Price Index (IVMU) will be pushed up by an annual rate of +1.4 points, boosting core CPI by 0.3 points." There is also speculation that the Federal Reserve (FRB) will have an excuse to refrain from cutting rates after autumn. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Brazil announced a preliminary figure that "the impact of the additional tariff is 2.1% of the total value of exports to the U.S.," indicating that the impact is localized.

10. The Choices Presented by "10%"

This move, which shakes the core of the free trade system, is expected to converge into three routes: ① Concede in trade negotiations to avoid additional tariffs ② Engage in retaliatory battles with countermeasures ③ Accelerate intra-regional trade shifts within BRICS. In any case, the final cost burden will fall on consumers. Experts unanimously say, "Even if the figure is 10%, the cost of supply chain reorganization is several times that."

11. Conclusion

The clash between multilateralism and America First has once again taken the stage through the classic means of the "tariff card." How far can the spear of Washington's tariffs penetrate the aspirations for a "multipolar world" shown by the emerging country leaders gathered in Rio? Only 48 hours remain. The key to deciphering the next move lies in the real-time "public opinion heat" reflected on the world's timeline.