August 1: A Trigger for a New Cold War - Large-Scale Tariffs Imminent! The Predicament of Countries that Made Agreements with the Trump Administration and Brazil

Prologue: The "Trade Deadline" Approaching in Five Days
On the afternoon of the 27th, with only a few days left until the 1st, President Trump emphasized in the White House's Red Room, "If anyone wants a deal, give me a call. I'm waiting." A 15% compromise with the EU has already been reached, leaving Brazil and India as the major players. According to InfoMoney's tally, six countries and one region—UK, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan—have already reached agreements.

Chapter 1: The "Safety Valve" Chosen by Each Country in Exchange for Pain

• United Kingdom: 10% tariffs, in exchange for reducing average tariffs on U.S. products from 5.1% to 1.8%.

• China: A provisional agreement to mutually reduce tariffs by 115 points.

• Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines: A single tariff of 20-19% plus full market opening.

• Japan: 15% mutual tariffs and a $550 billion investment in the U.S.

These "prepaid pains" aim to ensure predictability for domestic companies and curb market and currency volatility. The EU also accepted a "15% unified rate plus large energy and defense orders" in line with the Japan-EU EPA, avoiding a worst-case scenario of 30%.

Chapter 2: The Political Isolation of Brazil
The background to Brazil being presented with a "ceiling" of 50% includes Trump's statement that "Bolsonaro's prosecution is a witch hunt," creating a structure to check the Lula administration. Despite Vice President Alckmin's phone offensive, Brasilia cannot concede to the U.S. hinting at judicial intervention as a condition for tariff withdrawal. Export companies are crying out, "If the exchange rate moves by 3%, profits disappear," but within the government, hardline opinions that "surrender would be fatal for next year's election" are prevailing.

Chapter 3: "Vampetaço" Ignites on Social Media
On the night of July 10, when the trade news broke, "#Vampetaço" surged to the top of Brazil's X (formerly Twitter) trends. This unique digital protest involved modifying nude photos of former soccer player Vampeta and posting them with protest messages Agenda do Poder.

• On the 16th, the reply section of the official USTR post was filled with images hiding private parts with the Pix logo, prompting the U.S. government to implement comment restrictions Poder360.

• Trump's own Instagram was similarly forced to impose restrictions, and VEJA magazine reported, "The President Defeated by Memes" VEJA.

• To evade censorship, memes spread to Threads and Bluesky, recording an estimated 400 million impressions within 24 hours on the same day (Crowdtangle estimate).

Wikipedia recorded, "In July 2025, the largest Vampetaço occurred as a result of the tariff announcement," marking it in internet history Wikipedia.

Chapter 4: Economic Impact: Reading the 50% Tariff in Numbers
According to estimates by the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the 50% implementation would reduce annual average exports to the U.S. by 27% (about $18 billion) from 2024 to 2026, impacting GDP by -0.4 points. On the U.S. side, rising import costs would push consumer prices up by 0.1 points, making the reorganization of the steel and agricultural supply chains unavoidable. The EU, relieved that it settled at 15%, cannot avoid a decline in price competitiveness in automobiles and semiconductors, with the German Economic Institute warning of "a loss of 25,000 jobs over five years."

Chapter 5: The True Intent of "Deal Diplomacy"
While Trump portrays himself as a "fighting president" in the year before the election, his intention to secure short-term funding is apparent. Investment commitments from the UK and Japan exceed $690 billion in total, and the U.S.-China agreement aims to bind Chinese companies to the U.S. market with IP protection clauses. The demarcation of "low rates for allies, high rates for rivals" also marks a return to a Cold War-style block economy.

Chapter 6: Can Internet Public Opinion Influence Policy?
The Brazilian government is exploring a strategy to garner sympathy through "meme diplomacy" and sway U.S. public opinion. In fact, after the comment restriction incident, a U.S. import industry group issued an open letter calling for a "policy reconsideration." CNN reported, "Corporate lobbying is silent, fearing Trump's wrath" CNN Brasil.

However, a White House official dismissed it, saying, "National strategy won't change due to noise on X." Nonetheless, as the election campaign intensifies in the fall, the possibility of real vote calculations emerging in the extension of memes cannot be ignored if more voters become dissatisfied with rising costs.

Epilogue: August 1st and Beyond
With five days remaining, the door to a deal is half-open. Whether Brazil will play its political card or the U.S. will stage a "last-minute extension" remains to be seen. The key may lie not only in negotiation power but also in the countless Vampetas filling the timeline.

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