What is SoftBank's Vision for the Future: A $1 Trillion AI and Robotics Complex Plan?

1. Overview of the Report—What is "Project Crystal Land"?

According to reports from TechCrunch and Reuters dated June 20, SoftBank Group (SBG) is collaborating with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) to secretly advance plans to build an AI and robotics "industrial complex city" in Arizona. The development code is Crystal Land, with a total investment of an astonishing $1 trillion. This is double the $500 billion AI data center plan "Stargate" that the company is promoting with OpenAI and Oracle.techcrunch.comreuters.com

Chairman Masayoshi Son envisions a "U.S. version of Shenzhen," integrating mass production plants for high-performance robots, AI chip front-end and back-end lines, giga-scale data centers, and smart city functions including housing, schools, and hospitals. It is estimated to create over 300,000 jobs in 10 years.

2. Why Arizona?—Three Geopolitical Risks and Incentives

1. Synergy with Existing TSMC Fabs
   Near Phoenix, Arizona, TSMC is investing $165 billion to build three advanced semiconductor factories. If Crystal Land is adjacent, it can share logistics and talent pipelines.

2. CHIPS Act and State Tax Incentives
   Under the Biden administration, the CHIPS Act's $39 billion framework plus state-specific tax reductions can provide up to a 25% equipment investment credit.

3. Accelerating U.S.-China Tech Decoupling
   In light of AI chip export regulations, the significance of SoftBank's Arm and OpenAI having manufacturing and operational bases in the U.S. is increasing year by year.

However, Arizona has an annual precipitation of only about 200 mm. A single state-of-the-art fab is said to consume ultra-pure water equivalent to 80 Olympic pools per day, and securing water resources is a persistent criticism as a "castle in the sand."

3. Is Such a Massive Investment Really Possible?—A Financial Perspective

SBG's recent financial results secured 25 trillion yen in cash equivalents from the sale of equity holdings. Additionally, it gained extra funds by selling $4.8 billion in T-Mobile shares. However, SBG will not be providing the entire $1 trillion.

• Equity: SBG 15%, TSMC 10%, Samsung 5%, with the remainder shared by Vision Fund II/III, Middle Eastern SWFs, etc.

• Debt: 60% through U.S. construction bond-type green bonds and private infrastructure bonds

• Subsidies: Up to $100 billion from federal and state grants

Although financial leverage is high, 70% of the term loans are hedged at fixed interest rates to mitigate the risk of rising interest rates.

4. The Frenzy and Cynicism of Social Media: Capturing Voices from the Field

The focus of the discussion is converging on three points: **(1) the sustainability of water and power**, (2) the feasibility of collaboration with TSMC, and (3) the risk of a change in the U.S. administration.

5. Technology Stack: The Four Layers Forming the Core of the "Factory City"

1. Silicon: Arm-based AI Accelerators
   Based on Arm server designs acquired through the Ampere acquisition, mass production of 3 nm generation SoCs at TSMC.

2. Robotics: Pepper Next & Agile Robots SE
   Integrating technology from Germany's Agile Robots, a Vision Fund investee, for vertical integration from collaborative robots to service robots.

3. Foundation AI: OpenAI API + SBG LLM
   Expanding the Japanese-specialized LLM "Nihongo-5B," training a multilingual industrial model on in-house fab GPUs.

4. Smart Grid: Renewable Energy + Liquid Sodium Storage
   Utilizing strong desert sunlight for 1.5 GW of solar power + 300 MWh battery storage, supplemented by power from SMRs (Small Modular Reactors) at night.

6. Stakeholder Analysis—The "Three-way" Power Game

7. Impact on Japan—Can "Hinamaru AI" Make a Comeback?

If Crystal Land succeeds, Japan's R&D bases (Tokyo, Takeshiba) and demonstration lines (Fukuoka, Kitakyushu) are expected to function as satellites, accelerating reverse-import innovation. Meanwhile, there are strong concerns about the hollowing out of domestic manufacturing.

8. Future Milestones

• 2025 Q4: Signing of Subsidy MOU with Arizona State and Federal Government

• 2026 Q2: Official Announcement of TSMC Participation, Completion of Land Acquisition

• 2027 Q1: Commencement of Phase 1 Robot Assembly Plant

• 2028 Q3: Operation of 3 nm AI Chip Mass Production Line

• 2030 Q4: Completion of Smart City Residential Area for 50,000 People

9. Conclusion—The Outcome of the "Sowing the Future in the Desert" Gamble

Masayoshi Son once called himself the "capitalist of the information revolution," repeatedly making massive bets such as the acquisition of Arm and investment in WeWork. Crystal Land is said to be the final chapter of such scale. Whether the vision that "in 10 years, the city where the world's AI operates will be in Arizona" will come true, or whether it will vanish like a mirage under the sun—remains to be seen. As the market and social media keep a close watch, the next official announcement is eagerly awaited.