The Oil Shock That Won't End Even with a Ceasefire: The Real Pain That Will Hit Households and Logistics Next

Even if crude oil prices fall, it cannot be said that the crisis is over

In the wake of the war over Iran, many people may have looked at the movements of Brent and WTI displayed on news apps and search screens and thought, "Indeed, it's high, but not as high as in 2022." However, the essence of this shock lies not in the futures prices that investors watch, but in how much more expensive and harder to obtain the physical crude oil transported by tankers has become. As the original article points out, while Brent futures were around $109 per barrel before the ceasefire reports, the price of crude oil being shipped in the real market had surged to nearly $145. In other words, the "crude oil price" we see is not the whole picture of the market, but only a part of it.

Why is there such a gap between "screen prices" and "real-world prices"?

The reason for this gap is simple. Futures can easily incorporate expectations of "what will happen in a few weeks," but physical oil is directly linked to the pressing realities of "whether ships can actually pass now," "whether insurance is available," and "whether it will reach refineries as scheduled." The original article introduces that this disparity has become unprecedentedly large in the past 20 years, with strategists from Macquarie and the CEO of Chevron expressing concerns that the futures market is not fully reflecting the current supply tightness. Even if futures are sold off on ceasefire expectations, if the flow of physical oil through the Strait of Hormuz does not return, refineries and importers will compete for "oil they want immediately, even at high prices."

The core of the problem lies in the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is literally the economic artery of the world, through which about 20% of the world's oil consumption, approximately 20.9 million barrels per day, passes. Moreover, alternative pipelines alone cannot fully shoulder this scale of flow. The U.S. Energy Information Administration explains that if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked or restricted, only a portion can be bypassed through existing alternative routes. The seriousness of the current war is not simply because geopolitical risks in the Middle East have increased. It is because the global energy logistics itself is clogged at the narrowest and most critical passage.

Even if a ceasefire occurs, logistics will not immediately return

In fact, even after the U.S. and Iran ceasefire was reported on April 8, ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained at low levels. Reuters reported that the number of transits after the ceasefire was significantly below the pre-war average, and shipping companies remained cautious. Maersk stated, "There is no complete certainty at sea," and the CEO of Hapag-Lloyd projected that normalization would take 6 to 8 weeks. Even if the market reacts simplistically with "ceasefire = supply recovery," the actual supply chain is bound by realities such as insurance premiums, route risks, port congestion, and the reallocation of shipping space. The restart of logistics is much slower than the news headlines.

That's why this oil shock is closer to "everyday life" than it appears

What makes this shock frightening is not just the crude oil itself, but its ripple effects on gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemical raw materials. According to Reuters and other reports, while the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz continues, European airports are wary of jet fuel shortages, and Asian countries are advancing fuel-saving measures and responses to supply uncertainties. The original article also introduces that gasoline shortages have occurred at gas stations in Vietnam and Thailand, and Sri Lanka has resorted to power saving and remote work. In Thailand, the government is also calling for remote work and fuel saving, and the impact is already shifting from "market numbers" to "daily actions." Discussions about crude oil prices feel distant from household budgets only in peacetime; when logistics are clogged, transportation and food costs quickly become immediate issues.

What is being discussed on social media

Looking at reactions on social media, the most common sentiment is that "it's dangerous to feel reassured just by looking at futures prices." On X, The Kobeissi Letter warned that if the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is prolonged, crude oil could reach $120 to $130 according to JP Morgan's assumptions, and the current prices do not fully incorporate the structural supply risks. John Kemp's post summary also indicated that while futures plummeted on ceasefire reports, it merely revealed the threshold of pain, and the problem itself has not been resolved. Additionally, Macro Daily Co. pointed out that the physical shortage of crude oil is becoming a reality, and Dubai-linked spot prices are significantly higher than Brent futures.

The reactions of individual investors and energy communities are even more vivid. On Reddit's oil-related threads, voices stand out saying, "The full pass-through to consumer prices will come with a 2-3 week delay," "Ceasefire headlines are noise, and supply tightness will continue until tankers start moving," and "The current gap between futures and spot prices is like a ticking time bomb." In another post, the movement of WTI rebounding after a sharp drop following ceasefire reports is described as "pure chaos." Across social media, there is more skepticism than optimism, with doubts that "the calm in prices may not be genuine."

What the market is overlooking is not "the end of the war" but "how the clogging remains"

When comparing this oil shock to the period right after the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, it may seem less severe in terms of the superficial height of futures prices. However, this time, the combination of logistics stoppage at the most critical chokepoint and the continued navigation uncertainty even after the ceasefire is troublesome. Reuters reported that 7.5 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude oil stopped in March, with the possibility of expanding to 9.1 million barrels in April. Moreover, the EIA believes that even if the flow through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, it will take time to normalize the stranded tankers and disrupted trade routes, leaving a risk premium in prices. In other words, the crisis will be prolonged not only by "whether the war continues" but also by "how much distrust remains."

It's not someone else's problem for Japan either

Much of the crude oil and LNG passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia, making Japan, South Korea, China, and India particularly susceptible to its effects. According to the EIA, nearly 90% of the crude oil and condensate passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian markets, with major countries including Japan among the top destinations. In Japan, even if it doesn't immediately lead to queues at gas stations, it is highly likely to have delayed effects through power fuel, transportation costs, chemical materials, and airfares. Moreover, in situations where futures prices appear somewhat stable as they do now, crisis response tends to be delayed. The more the numbers seem calm, the more companies and households tend to postpone preparations.

What indicators should really be focused on

The focus going forward should be on the pace of recovery of transit through the Strait of Hormuz, the stance on underwriting ship insurance, the narrowing of spot premiums, and the inventory trends of jet fuel and diesel, rather than the closing prices of Brent or WTI themselves. If futures fall but spot prices remain high and transit volumes do not return, it should be judged that this shock is "not over as it seems." Conversely, if transit clearly recovers and the abnormal gap between spot and futures narrows, there will be grounds for market reassurance. The important thing is to look at the reality of logistics, not investor sentiment.

Ultimately, what this crisis is confronting us with

This commotion is not a simple story of crude oil prices rising. The world is still so dependent on the flow of fossil fuels that the disruption of a single strait can simultaneously shake fuel prices, flights, logistics, prices, and financial markets. It's understandable to want to feel reassured by ceasefire headlines. However, as long as the ships moving across the sea have not returned, the crisis is not yet "in the past tense." What is truly frightening about this oil shock is not the prices themselves, but the fact that the price indicators we usually see do not sufficiently capture the depth of the crisis. In other words, the moments when the market seems calm may be the times when the most caution is needed.

Source URL

InfoMoney, used for the structure of the text including near $145 spot prices and supply disruptions in Asia.
https://www.infomoney.com.br/business/global/por-que-o-choque-do-petroleo-causado-pela-guerra-no-ira-e-pior-do-que-voce-imagina/

Reuters. Used to confirm that transit through the Strait of Hormuz has not significantly recovered even after the ceasefire.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-remains-near-standstill-after-ceasefire-2026-04-10/

Reuters. Used to confirm that Maersk is cautious about resuming normal operations.
https://www.reuters.com/world/maersk-says-us-iran-ceasefire-may-create-strait-hormuz-transit-opportunities-2026-04-08/

Reuters. Used to confirm that Hapag-Lloyd expects normalization to take 6-8 weeks.
https://www.reuters.com/business/hapag-lloyd-estimates-extra-weekly-costs-iran-crisis-50-mln60-mln-2026-04-08/

U.S. Energy Information Administration. Used for the point that the amount of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global consumption, the proportion destined for Asia, and the limitations of alternative pipeline capacity.
https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/special_topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/

U.S. Energy Information Administration. Used for the outlook that even after the flow resumes, it will take time to normalize stranded tankers and disrupted trade routes.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

Reuters. Used to confirm the stoppage amount of Middle Eastern crude oil and weekly oil price fluctuations.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rise-after-strikes-saudi-oil-facilities-2026-04-10/

The Guardian. Used to reinforce the point that there are concerns about jet fuel shortages in Europe.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/10/european-airports-jet-fuel-shortages-flights-iran

The Guardian. Used to reinforce the situation where fuel-saving and remote work are being called for in Thailand and other parts of Asia.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/06/thailand-pm-calls-for-energy-saving-as-middle-east-conflict-drives-price-surge

X post summary (The Kobeissi Letter). Used to reference the assumption of $120-$130 if the Strait of Hormuz blockage is prolonged and the view that the market is underestimating supply risks.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2029680603717886294

X post summary (John Kemp). Used to reference the sharp drop in futures after the ceasefire and the view that the problem itself is not over.
https://x.com/JKempEnergy/status/2041904096542703741

X post summary (Macro Daily Co.). Used to reference reactions regarding the physical shortage and the pressure on Dubai-linked prices.
https://x.com/macrodailyco

Reddit thread. Used to understand reactions in the individual investor and energy community about "lagged price pass-through" and "ceasefire alone is not enough."
https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1shxmcl/iran_war_drives_deeper_oil_shock_than_prices/

Reddit thread. Used to reference investor reactions describing the volatility of WTI as "chaos."
https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1shmmb2/wti_oil_right_now_is_pure_chaos/

Reddit thread. Used to reference discussions among individual investors about the large price gap between spot and futures.
https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1shxzhb/a_50000_oil_arbitrage_trade_bz_bno/

Reddit thread. Used to reference reactions that high prices will continue if tankers do not move even after ceasefire reports.
https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1sgodk4/zero_tankers_crossed_the_strait_today_the/