"Is the price of gasoline going to rise again?" Concerns spread due to tensions in the Middle East; will the IEA's release of reserves be a trump card?

Whenever military tensions rise in the Middle East, the world always faces the same question: What will be affected next? The financial markets, logistics, or our household budgets? This time, as reports of Iran's expanding attacks spread globally, the first to react was the crude oil market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicated that it is prepared to take measures, including releasing reserves, if the market faces a significant supply shortage, and investors and governments are beginning to anticipate the "worst chain reaction."

The IEA emphasized that the market is still relatively well-supplied at present. As of June 2025, it explained that the forecast for increased supply from non-OPEC Plus countries exceeded demand growth, and OECD commercial inventories remained robust. Additionally, IEA member countries have over 1.2 billion barrels in public emergency reserves, with an additional 580 million barrels in private inventories mandated by governments. In other words, purely by the numbers, there is no immediate shortage of oil. Nevertheless, the market remains nervous because it is not the absolute quantity of supply and demand but the fragility of supply "routes" and "psychology" that causes concern.

The most significant concern for market participants in this situation is the risk surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. This crucial shipping route for Middle Eastern crude oil and liquefied natural gas can cause insurance premiums, transportation costs, futures prices, exchange rates, and even some stock markets to move in a chain reaction if instability arises. Indeed, Reuters reported in June 2025 that crude oil prices surged following an Israeli attack on Iran, and the IEA indicated its readiness to release reserves if necessary. On the other hand, OPEC responded by saying it would "create unnecessary caution about supply and market trends," also mentioning the possibility that excessive anxiety could further destabilize prices.

This difference in perspective is symbolic. Consumer countries want to prepare for "unexpected supply disruptions," while oil-producing countries want to show that "there has been no actual breakdown in demand yet." Both are reasonable from their respective standpoints, but from the market's perspective, this itself becomes a factor in increasing uncertainty. When a crisis occurs, it is not just the actual amount of lost crude oil that moves prices. The imagination of "what if the strait is blocked next" or "what if the refinery is targeted next" pushes up current prices. This is why discussions about releasing strategic reserves are not only about addressing physical shortages but also a psychological battle to curb the amplification of fear.

On social media, this structure is shared in very understandable terms. One is the anxiety about protecting one's livelihood. On Reddit, practical concerns were expressed about "whether fuel prices will rise next month" due to the expansion of attacks and rising crude oil prices, and users from the Gulf region pointed out calmly that "even if oil is produced locally, domestic prices are linked to the global market." In another investment community, discussions were spreading on how to view energy and defense stocks, based on the assumption that "if the conflict escalates, crude oil could jump from $100 to $120." While social media reactions may seem emotional, they actually show that living costs and investment decisions are connected by the same source of anxiety.

Another reaction is skepticism about "whether releasing reserves really works." Strategic reserves are a system to inject additional supply into the market to ease panic in response to sudden supply disruptions or price spikes. In fact, IEA member countries also conducted a coordinated release after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, on social media, there are many voices saying, "Reserves are just a temporary measure," and "If the strait closure or infrastructure attacks persist, it might be like pouring water on a hot stone." This is not just an instinctive reaction but can also be seen as an intuitive view that the essence of the crisis lies not only in the supply volume itself but in the complex risks of transportation, insurance, and security.

Indeed, following market reports from June 2025, crude oil prices fluctuated significantly based on which facilities were targeted, which sea routes were at risk, and what statements were made, rather than simple supply and demand statistics. Reuters reported that prices surged significantly after the Israeli attack, with RBC analysts noting that "whether Iran targets tankers, pipelines, and major energy facilities using 2019-style methods will determine the price's landing point." Past memories are dominating the market's present. Even if a full-scale supply cut does not occur, prices move when many believe it "could happen."

What is important here is that the rise in crude oil prices does not remain confined to the oil industry alone. Fuel costs drive up logistics costs, affecting a wide range of sectors, including aviation, shipping, chemicals, food, and electricity. From the consumer's perspective, it ultimately manifests as higher gasoline prices, electricity bills, delivery costs, and inflation. Therefore, the increase in posts on social media like "fueling up is getting expensive again" or "should we fill up now" is not merely an overreaction. People understand geopolitics not in technical terms but as fluctuations in living expenses. When news of war directly connects to household budgets, events in the distant Middle East suddenly become a pressing issue.

On the other hand, there are also calm perspectives in the market. The IEA itself explained in June 2025 that "the market is well-supplied," and S&P Global reported in the same month that despite rising geopolitical risks, the current market is still facing a significant supply surplus. In other words, the background to the price surge includes a greater incorporation of future disruption risks rather than the progression of an actual physical shortage. Misunderstanding this could lead to the simplistic belief that "prices have risen = there is already a shortage of oil," but in reality, it is a situation where "insurance premiums for future supply shocks" are being added to current prices.

The reason we cannot feel at ease is that if the crisis drags on, the situation changes. If the price surge is short-term, it might be somewhat absorbed through reserve releases, increased production expectations, and supply-demand adjustments. However, if the targets of attacks expand to energy facilities, maritime transport safety continues to be shaken, and countries engage in political maneuvering, psychological shocks will turn into burdens on the real economy. The sense of "isn't this just the beginning" spreading on social media, while somewhat sensational, cannot be ignored as an instinctive caution against the prolongation of the crisis.

The discussion on releasing reserves carries a dual message in that sense. One is the reassurance that "there are still measures to be taken." The other is the warning that "the market is tense enough to require it." While the IEA's significance is not only in the latter, the fact that reserves are being discussed indicates that the market is not in a normal state. Especially this time, it is not just about crude oil but also involves natural gas, maritime insurance, and regional security, making it difficult to separate as a simple price issue. Energy is both a strategic resource and a daily necessity. This duality connects social media reactions as a single anxiety, rather than dividing them into "investment talk" and "living talk."

What has become apparent in this situation is the fact that the world still heavily relies on the stability of the Middle East. Even with the progress of decarbonization, the expansion of renewable energy, and the diversification of supply chains, the structure where tensions in major straits and oil-producing regions are immediately reflected in prices has not changed. What the market fears most is not a single attack but the chain reaction of accidental conflicts turning into irreversible anxiety. Therefore, the IEA's reserve release discussions, the oil-producing countries' checks, and the lifestyle anxieties on social media all converge on the same point: the question of "where will this crisis stop?"

Crude oil prices are often reported in numbers: how many dollars they have risen, what percentage they have jumped, or whether they have surpassed a milestone. But behind that is not just the ups and downs of the market. Consumers sighing at each refueling, companies recalculating rising transportation costs, governments lining up crisis response cards, and social media users constantly updating their timelines with "what will happen next." The linkage between the Iran situation and the crude oil market once again demonstrates that war is connected to every corner of modern society. More important than whether there will be a reserve release is the reality that the crisis is moving not only prices but people's expectations and anxieties themselves.

Source URL

IEA official statement (June 13, 2025). Basic information on market supply status, OECD inventories, and over 1.2 billion barrels of emergency reserves
https://www.iea.org/news/iea-closely-monitoring-oil-markets-amid-israel-iran-situation

Summary excerpt from Reuters distribution. Confirmation of IEA's readiness to release emergency reserves if necessary and OPEC's opposition to "creating unnecessary caution"
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/iea-says-it-stands-ready-to-tap-emergency-oil-stocks-opec-sees-no-need-4095325

S&P Global article. Reinforcement of the point that despite rising geopolitical risks, the current oil market was still facing a supply surplus
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/refined-products/061725-oil-market-still-facing-major-supply-flood-despite-iran-conflict-risk-iea

Reddit post. Confirmation of consumer perspective reactions like "fuel prices might rise next month" due to Middle East tensions
https://www.reddit.com/r/JobXDubai/comments/1lcnvs6

Reddit post. Confirmation of market perspective reactions in investor communities like "possibility of crude oil reaching $100-$120" and "should we look at energy and defense stocks"
https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1lb4nz9

Reddit post. Example of strong shared concerns about Strait of Hormuz closure and supply shock fears
https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1lhqka1/just_in_iranian_parliament_approves_closure_of/

Reddit post. Economic community reactions concerning crude oil surges and supply shock fears following US military attacks on Iran
https://www.reddit.com/r/unusual_whales/comments/1li3prc)

Reddit post. Example showing the spread of general user anxiety like "should we refuel now"
https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1lhmcjt