The Impending American Tariff Shock: What Impact Will It Have on the Canadian Economy? Countdown to the "Price Shock" on August 1st: How Tariff Implementation Will Change the Shopping Landscape

1. Prologue: A Sigh of "Not Again" and Rising Sense of Crisis

"I thought the prices would stop rising." Jessica McBride, a resident of Winnipeg, sighed at the register with her hobby Pokémon cards in hand. Due to the new tariff measures the U.S. plans to implement on August 1, the retail price of a pack of cards has jumped about 15% this month alone. "Even though my salary remains the same, my enjoyment is being cut," she laments—a sentiment that is becoming a common scene across Canada.

2. Overview of Additional Tariffs: "From Trading Cards to SUVs"

The revised proposal published by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) imposes an additional 25-35% tariff on imports from several countries, including Canada, extending from steel, aluminum, and auto parts to toys and luxury itemsMarket Watch. The White House describes it as a countermeasure to unfair trade practices, but the message is mixed, emphasizing "high-quality deals as the top priority" without detailed estimates.

3. Cries from Retail and Small Businesses

At "A Muse N Games" in Winnipeg, the cost of trading cards sourced from U.S. wholesalers has already risen by 25%. To maintain profit margins, the store has had to increase retail prices by an average of 10-15%, resulting in a 12% drop in customer traffic compared to MarchGlobal News. "Every price hike leads to inventory stagnation, and expansion plans are out of the question," the store owner laments. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) also warns that "rising raw material costs and declining demand are cooling investments."

4. Ripple Effects on Households: Double Trouble of Inflation

Households are already at their limits with high food and housing costs. According to the latest CFIB survey, 54% of consumers said they are "postponing durable goods purchases," and 37% are "scaling back travel plans." Mitchell Etkin of car dealership Match Auto states, "New car purchases have plummeted, and customers are turning to used cars and leases."Global News.

5. The "Boycott" Movement Spreading on Social Media

This pressure-cooker-like social sentiment is spreading explosively on social media. Hashtags like "#BuyCanadian" and "#TariffPain" are trending, and the "Buy Canadian" group on Facebook has swelled to a size of 1.2 millionWikipedia. Many posts call for "choosing domestic products even if they're more expensive" and "stopping U.S. travel for the time being."

Since March, another slogan, "Elbows Up," has been added. This phrase, reminiscent of a body check in ice hockey, is being quoted by popular influencers as a message to "stand firm like Canadians," with reports that TikTok videos have surpassed 100 million viewsThe Guardian.

6. Spread of Boycotts and Economic Impact

In a survey by the Angus Reid Institute, 98% said they "look for 'Made in Canada' when shopping," and 85% revealed they have "partially or completely replaced U.S. products."Wikipedia. U.S. travel has also cooled, with leisure flight bookings from Canada to the U.S. in February down 40% compared to the same month last year. Duty-free shops at the border have seen sales halved, and voices lamenting "Canadian customers have disappeared" are heard at U.S. tourist spots.

7. Political Reactions: "Team Canada" Once Again

Prime Minister Trudeau is calling on the public to "choose Canadian products," and incoming Prime Minister Carney also shows a positive stance towards negotiations with the U.S., based on "dignified negotiations." Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford points out that "the responsibility lies solely with Mr. Trump" and is considering reducing the sale of U.S.-made alcoholic beverages as a countermeasure.

8. Expert Views: "Both Pain and Opportunity"

Economists at the Royal Bank of Canada analyze that "in the short term, rising import costs will increase inflationary pressure, but if domestic production returns, it could lead to a stronger supply chain in the medium term." Sectors with a high domestic production ratio, such as steel and agricultural products, may benefit from tailwinds.

9. Tips for Protecting Your Lifestyle

1. Be Cautious with Bulk Buying: Unplanned bulk purchases can exacerbate supply shortages.

2. Use Domestic Apps: Instantly check the country of origin with barcode scanning apps like Maple Scan.

3. Consider Used and Sharing: For items with steep price increases, like cars and appliances, consider the used market or rentals.

10. Future Scenarios

• Short Term (by the end of the year): Tariff imposition and retaliatory tariffs are expected to raise the CPI by an additional 0.7 points.

• Medium Term (1–2 years): Expansion of FTAs with third countries like Japan and Europe will accelerate.

• Long Term (3+ years): Supply chain restructuring will progress, with increased exports of domestic brands in view.

11. Conclusion: Choices Beyond "Elbows Up"

Additional tariffs certainly bring pain to households and businesses. However, this pain also serves as a "rite of passage" that prompts structural reform in the Canadian economy. The "Elbows Up" slogan flooding SNS is not just a catchphrase but an expression of the intent to choose the future through one's own consumption behavior. The first step in protecting our wallets begins with small choices at the register—and those choices can potentially influence new negotiation tables across borders.

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