Earth's Heat Retention Exceeds Expectations! "A Planet That Can't Release Heat" — The Shocking Doubling of Energy Balance Over 20 Years

1. Prologue: The Earth's "Household Ledger" in the Red

A recent paper published on June 29 reported that the Earth's energy balance has nearly doubled over the past 20 years, resulting in an average 1.3 W/m² "surplus." This means that an amount of heat equivalent to tens of times the power capacity used by all humanity every second is being stored within the Earth system.phys.org.

2. What is Energy Balance?

The energy balance can be imagined as comparing deposits (sunlight) and withdrawals (earth radiation) in a bank account. Achieving balance signifies "climate stability," but currently, there is an excess of deposits, leading to heat accumulation in the oceans, atmosphere, and ice sheets.phys.org.

3. From 0.6 to 1.3: The Unprecedented Pace of "Deficit Expansion"

The energy imbalance measured at 0.6 W/m² in the mid-2000s surged to 1.3 W/m² through coordinated observations by the satellite CERES and ocean floats ARGO.phys.org. This is more than double the model average and has been described as "unexpected" among climate scientists.

4. Why Did the Models Fail?

The main reason is changes in clouds. The reduction of low-altitude, white stratocumulus clouds and the increase of nimbostratus clouds with lower reflectivity have allowed more sunlight to reach the Earth's surface.phys.org. The reduction of aerosols due to maritime fuel regulations that cut sulfur content may have also diminished the "whitening" effect of clouds.phys.org.

5. The "Main Culprit" of Greenhouse Gases

The CO₂ emissions since the Industrial Revolution have exceeded 2 trillion tons, and atmospheric concentrations are at their highest levels in 2 million years. While the oceans have absorbed 90% of the heat, they are now starting to warm even at deeper levels, indicating that their buffering capacity is nearing its limit.phys.org.

6. Feedback and Critical Points

The melting of sea ice reduces albedo, and forest fires deposit black carbon on ice surfaces. These positive feedbacks are difficult to replicate in models. The U.S. budget proposal, which discusses reducing satellite observations, raises concerns about "blind driving."phys.org.

7. Impending Impacts: Heatwaves, Heavy Rain, Marine Heatwaves

In early summer 2025, the heat dome phenomenon that hit Europe and the U.S. recorded extreme heat exceeding 42 °C for consecutive days, severely impacting residential infrastructure and agriculture. In southwestern China, heavy rainfall occurred at the same time, leading to frequent floods and landslides.ft.com. The energy deficit increases the "background heat release" of extreme events, amplifying the damage.

8. The Sense of Crisis and Resignation on Social Media

On X (formerly Twitter), posts lamenting "the response to the crisis is too weak" while quoting article titles have gone viral.twitter.com. While hashtags #ActOnClimate and #ClimateCrisis are trending, harsh comments like "the slow suicide of civilization" are prominent on Reddit's r/collapse.

9. Voices of Experts

• Professor Steven Sherwood of UNSW Sydney warns, "The 'high sensitivity' scenario of models is close to reality. If emission reductions are delayed, a rise of over +3 °C is in sight."phys.org.

• A researcher from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts points out, "Joint research on cloud physics and aerosols is urgently needed. The lack of satellite data is critical."
  
  
  

10. Impact on Japan

Sea surface temperatures along the Japanese coast are rising faster than the global average, and last summer's record heat is just the "prologue." The northward migration of fishery resources, urban heavy rainfall, and tight power supply-demand are emerging as compound risks.

11. Necessary Policies and Technologies

1. Fossil Fuel Phase-out: Abolish coal-fired power in the early 2030s.

2. Strengthening Observation Networks: International joint development of geostationary climate satellites and deep-sea floats.

3. Nature Positive: Conservation and expansion of mangroves and blue carbon ecosystems.

4. Adaptation Investment: Urban greening, heat-resilient housing, and early weather warning systems.

12. What Individuals Can Do

Switching to renewable energy power, using public transportation for short-distance travel, and investing in climate-related financial products are some actions individuals can take. Sharing information on social media also contributes to shaping public opinion.

13. Conclusion: How to Live in the Age of the "Invisible Flame"

A difference of 1 W/m² may seem minute, but on a global scale, it represents an excess heat of 300 trillion watts per second. This is the "invisible flame" that can determine the course of entire civilizations. Unless we face the crisis head-on and maintain both observation and action, our future options will only narrow.