The Amazon Collapse Scenario Read Through Maps: The "Point of No Return" in the Amazon, Equivalent to the Loss of an Area the Size of France

The Amazon Collapse Scenario Read Through Maps: The "Point of No Return" in the Amazon, Equivalent to the Loss of an Area the Size of France

2025年09月17日 01:56

The Brazilian map project "MapBiomas" has released its latest satellite analysis (1985-2024), warning that the Amazon is approaching an ecological "point of no return" (tipping point). Over 40 years, approximately 52 million hectares of primary vegetation (about 13% of the national territory) have been lost, with agricultural and pasture lands rapidly expanding. Researchers particularly point out that if the total loss reaches 20-25%, the forest may no longer be self-sustaining and could shift towards savannization. We will organize the reality reflected in the vast time-series maps, along with the reactions on social media, to understand "where, how much, and why" these changes have occurred.Nature


What Happened: 40 Years of Land Use Change

  • Net Reduction of Primary Vegetation: A decrease of 52 million ha (-13%) from 1985 to 2024. Most of the loss is concentrated in **forests (about 49 million ha)**.InfoMoney

  • Expansion of Human-Induced Changes: During the same period, human land use increased by **4.71 times** (+57 million ha). Agricultural land expanded 44 times (from 180,000 to 7.9 million ha), and pasture land increased by 355% (from 12.3 million to 56.1 million ha). Forestry and mining (from 26,000 to 444,000 ha) also gained prominence.InfoMoney

  • Retreat of Water and Wetlands: The area of water surfaces and wetlands decreased by **-2.6 million ha**. In the past decade, **"the driest years" accounted for 8 years**, indicating signs of increasing aridity.InfoMoney


What is a Tipping Point?

In scientific literature, it is suggested that when total forest loss approaches 20-25%, widespread savannization could be triggered due to the breakdown of regional water cycles and increased fire risk. Classic reviews (Lovejoy & Nobre, 2018) and subsequent studies suggest that warming and drying could raise or lower these thresholds.Scientific Journal


Based on MapBiomas analysis, it is reported that by 2024, the cumulative loss in the Amazon will be about 18.7% (of which 15.3% is due to human use), with researchers stating that it is "approaching the 20-25% range."Agência Brasil


Where and How Changes Occurred: Focus on States and Regions

  • Rondônia State: A significant shift from primary vegetation to pasture (pasture ratio increased from 7% to 37% over 40 years). It has the lowest ratio of primary vegetation within the Amazon region.InfoMoney

  • AMACRO (Acre, Amazonas, Rondônia): Accounts for 14% of net loss from 2015 to 2024, with pasture land expanding 11 times.InfoMoney


Turning Point in the Supply Chain: Has Soybean Exited as a "Direct Factor"?

**Since the Soy Moratorium (2008), the "direct" conversion from forest to soybean has decreased by 68%. The expansion of soybeans from 2009 to 2024 is said to have mainly occurred in already cleared areas (pasture and existing agricultural land)**. This suggests the effectiveness of corporate procurement policies and monitoring, while also indicating that intensification in already developed areas may only be altering the appearance of deforestation risk.InfoMoney


Drying Amazon: Decline of Wetlands and Extreme Events

The shrinking of wetlands and water surfaces indicated by satellite data is a sign corroborating the weakening of the water cycle. Recent studies warn that the combination of water stress, land modification, and climate disturbances accelerates the tipping point. Some analyses suggest the possibility of reaching the tipping point in certain areas around 2050.The Guardian


Reactions on Social Media: Dissemination, Warnings, and Impact on Industry

 


This announcement was quickly disseminated by Brazilian environmental media and accounts. For example, environmental media and commentary accounts emphasized key points such as **"52 million ha lost," "equivalent to France," and raised awareness using hashtags like #Amazônia #MapBiomas #pontoDeNãoRetorno. News agencies and economic newspapers also spread reports with keywords like "18.7% lost," "20-25% is critical,". Posts pointing out ESG risks to companies and investors were also observed.


Additionally, on Instagram, many infographics related to MapBiomas were shared, spreading statistics such as "1985-2024," "83% concentrated in the last 40 years," and explanations of the **"20-25% tipping point."Instagram

What to Do Next: Implementation Strategies for Policy, Business, and Citizens

  1. Strengthening Crackdowns on Illegal Logging: Enhance the effectiveness of detection and deterrence through the collaboration of satellite monitoring and on-site enforcement (utilizing open data like RAD2024).alerta.mapbiomas.org

  2. Improving Productivity on Already Developed Land: Achieve growth without new forest conversion through pasture intensification and regenerative agriculture. Expand the soy procurement moratorium level to the entire supply chain.InfoMoney

  3. Restoration by Watershed: Rebuild the water cycle through the restoration of wetlands and riparian forests and fire management, ensuring resilience to extreme dryness.InfoMoney

  4. Establishing Financial Rules: Cut off funding to illegal and high-risk projects, and ensure transparency in deforestation-free investments.

  5. Region-Specific Solutions: Focus investments on hotspots like Rondônia and AMACRO, implementing models that balance forest restoration and regional economy.InfoMoney


Conclusion

The Amazon is "still in time," but the distance to the tipping point is narrowing. The 40-year map has connected the debate to **"maps and numbers" rather than "emotions." Updating decision-making in the supply chain, finance, municipalities, and consumers **now is the only way to stay outside the tipping point.brasil.mapbiomas.org



Reference Articles

MapBiomas Points Out Amazon is Approaching the "Point of No Return" for Ecosystems
Source: https://www.infomoney.com.br/brasil/amazonia-esta-perto-do-ponto-de-nao-retorno-do-bioma-aponta-mapbiomas/

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