What is a phrase that reveals intelligence? Why are "people who don't make absolute statements" trusted? — Analyzing the "sentence of intelligence" that spread on social media

An article from a German local newspaper introduced the claim that "intelligent people say 'I'm not sure, but probably...,'" which has become a topic of discussion on social media. The core of this claim lies in "speaking in probabilities = probabilistic thinking" and "numeracy." Research and prediction contests in the United States demonstrate that expressing uncertainty with numbers and updating views with new information enhances accuracy and the quality of judgment. However, there is also pushback with the argument that "intelligence cannot be measured in a single sentence." In practical terms, adding "the percentage of certainty, conditions, and the next steps for verification" can increase trust. This should be utilized not as a way to avoid making definitive statements, but as a technique to ensure verifiability and sincerity.