Trump Expresses Desire to Meet Kim Jong-un by Year-End — Behind the Scenes of the U.S.-South Korea Summit and the Realistic Prospects of a "Fourth U.S.-North Korea Meeting"

On August 25 (Eastern Time), U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his willingness to meet with Kim Jong-un this year during a U.S.-South Korea summit at the White House, indicating a positive stance towards resuming U.S.-North Korea dialogue. The meeting was with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, who took office in June. The two leaders discussed trade, alliance cost-sharing, and the North Korean issue, but the atmosphere was tense due to a controversial social media post by Trump just before the meeting.InfoMoneyReuters

Key Points of the Meeting—The True Intent of "Want to Meet" and the Continuously Shifting Preconditions

In the Oval Office, Trump welcomed Lee and stated clearly, "I want to meet Kim Jong-un within this year." Lee responded by urging the resumption of dialogue to ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The meeting featured light-hearted remarks such as "praise for the president's interior design sense" and mentions of "Trump World (a real estate complex to be built in North Korea)," creating a unique atmosphere of harmony.ReutersPBSAl Jazeera

Meanwhile, North Korea has recently intensified its hardline stance against the U.S. and South Korea. Kim Jong-un inspected the launch of a new air defense missile over the weekend and condemned the U.S.-South Korea joint exercises as a "war provocation." While there is a glimpse of a summit meeting within the year, the distance to the starting point of denuclearization remains significant.Reuters

"New Conditions" for Trade and Alliance—$350 Billion Plan, 15% Tariff, and Cost Sharing

In the July negotiations, the U.S. and South Korea had established a framework to avoid escalating tariffs on the U.S. in exchange for South Korea's massive investment commitments. Currently, they are in the stage of finalizing the operational design through a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) regarding a total investment package of $350 billion. Simultaneously, the handling of the 15% tariff reflects the political and industrial intentions, and the finalization of details remains unpredictable.ReutersPolitico

"Purge or Revolution"—The Shadow Left by Pre-Meeting Social Media

Just before the meeting, Trump posted on social media about the political situation in South Korea, saying it seemed like a "purge or revolution." He later toned it down as a "misunderstanding," but the unusual remarks towards an ally heightened the tension of the first meeting. Lee avoided confrontation during the main meeting, instead highlighting the "achievements" of improved relations and resumed dialogue.The Korea HeraldReuters

The Reality of "The Fourth U.S.-North Korea"—Three Scenarios

1. Photo-Op Type Reunion
   Emphasizing mutual "relationships" while the substance of denuclearization remains stalled. Both leaders can perform domestic political "performances," but the structure of sanctions and nuclear development remains unchanged.The Independent

2. Limited Freeze Agreement
   Exchanging nuclear and missile test suspensions or specific facility seals with limited sanction relief in stages. The key lies in practical negotiations and the design of a verification framework.

3. Resurgence of Tensions
   Failed talks or provocations lead to a "resumption of pressure exchanges." The mutual reinforcement of North Korea's military technology demonstrations and U.S.-South Korea exercises raises the risk of accidental incidents.Reuters

Social Media Reactions—Simultaneous Enthusiasm, Skepticism, and Irony

• Reunion Anticipation: Posts evaluating the meeting within the year as the "only way to avoid escalation" through dialogue. Influencers from the conservative and pragmatic camps voice that "a deal should lower tensions."

• Skepticism About Effectiveness: Highlighting the lack of progress in denuclearization in the past three summit diplomacies, with a cool tone of "photo op > agreement text" being prominent.mint

• Meme-ification of "Trump World": Lee's joke became a topic even in the English-speaking world. On X, sarcastic posts like "Golf in North Korea" and "DMZ view suite" spread. The topic originated from the actual exchange during the meeting.Al Jazeera

• Extension of Political Exchanges: In the U.S., California Governor Gavin Newsom made a sarcastic post about Trump's "closeness with Kim," which received a flood of replies both for and against. The matter was also covered by the media.The Daily Beast

• Reception in South Korea: In response to the "stumble" initiated by Trump's social media remarks, voices calling for "alliance etiquette" and those advocating for prioritizing "relationship repair" clashed. Major newspapers' summaries of the meeting emphasized the duality of "smiles and homework."The Korea Herald

*The above is a summary of representative trends on social media based on actual statements and events covered by the media, rather than specific individual posts.*

What Needs to Progress to Be Considered "Advancement"

• Verifiable Freeze: Resumption of inspections and monitoring of Yongbyon and related facilities.

• Gradual Mutual Measures: Small-step agreements such as stopping experiments ↔ partial easing of humanitarian and financial sanctions.

• Coordination Among Japan, the U.S., and South Korea: Forming agreements within the alliance (especially security connections against China and Russia) and adjusting domestic political schedules. If realized within the year, the APEC-related schedule in October or around that time could be a "window."Reuters

A Picture of the Background—The Tailwinds and Headwinds of "Resuming Dialogue"

• Tailwinds: South Korea's new administration is aiming for a dialogue route, and there is a domestic need in the U.S. for "diplomacy with visible results."

• Headwinds: North Korea's military technology demonstrations and hardline rhetoric, distrust in the implementation of past agreements, and political conflicts within the U.S.Reuters

Powered by Froala Editor