Nintendo Switch 2 4th Lottery Announcement - Rises Again to No. 1 on SNS Trends; Unstoppable "Rejection Festival" and Fans' Agitation

Nintendo Switch 2 4th Lottery Announcement - Rises Again to No. 1 on SNS Trends; Unstoppable "Rejection Festival" and Fans' Agitation

1. Background: Why Lottery Sales Are Predominant in Japan

  • Supply and Demand Gap in the Console Market

  • The Presence of Scalpers and Legal Regulations

  • Japan's Unique "Lottery Culture" and Fan Community Formation




2. Overview and Schedule of the 4th Lottery




3. "Losing Festival" by the Numbers

##
RoundEstimated Number of ApplicationsNumber of Winning SlotsExpected OddsTrend RankingTotal Posts (X)*
1st Round2.2 million150,000About 15 times1st280,000
2nd Round2.3 million150,000About 15 times1st310,000
3rd Round2.4 million180,000About 13 times1st330,000
4th Round2.5 million+160,00015 to 20 times1st340,000
*Hashtag Compilation as of 18:00 on the 17th magmix.jp







4. Main Episodes of Wins and Losses Spread on SNS

  • Shoma Uno's "I don't feel like I can win!""Post received 40,000 likes mainichi.jp

  • VTuber Suisei Hoshimachi and Rui Takane's 'Audition Results' Post excite.co.jp

  • Takahashi Meijin's 'Full Rejection Email Exposure' leads to '#TakahashiMeijinRejection' tag creation




5. New Measures to Prevent Resale

  1. Random Fulfillment

    • Randomizing delivery timing and limiting delivery destinations even after winning

  2. Queue Position Resale Ban

    • Invalidating transfer of queue numbers in store lotteries

  3. QR Code Authentication Enhancement

    • One-time linkage with My Nintendo account upon device activation

  4. Non-automated Reapplication

    • 'Knockout System' requires manual entry for each unsuccessful applicant




6. Comparison with Overseas Markets

##HTML_T"AG_372##* Average Premium Price Survey One Week After Release
RegionMain Sales MethodLottery OddsSecondary Market Price*Special Notes
JapanLottery (Online-focused)15-20 times+60-80%Frequent SNS Trend
USAFirst-come, first-served + Invitation5-8 times+40-60%Best Buy & Target Invitations
EuropeLottery + First-come, first-served7-12 times+50-70%Strict EU Resale Rules







7. Future Prospects and Fan Strategy

  • Early July: Additional 100,000 units expected in the 5th lotterysnkrdunk.com

  • August: Expansion of in-store lottery at mass retailers, pre-event experience from mid-August

  • September: Revised Ticket Law for Resale Countermeasures (tentative name) expected to be enacted



Acquisition Strategy Advice

  1. Update My Nintendo Account Information

  2. Access is easier to avoid congestion the night before the deadline than right after the lottery starts

  3. Multilingual models currently have lower oddsstore-jp.nintendo.com



8. Conclusion: When Will the Frenzy Subside?

The excessive demand for Switch 2 has established itself as an "event of winning or losing" beyond mere scarcity.Sharing and humor on social media strengthen the sense of solidarity among fans, while also sharply visualizing dissatisfaction with reselling and feelings of unfairness. Whether Nintendo's production increase plan and new lottery design will be effective remains to be seen—the additional supply in the summer of 2025 will be a litmus test.



Reference Articles

  1. GAME Watch "My Nintendo Store Announces Results of the 4th Lottery for Switch 2!" (2025/06/17) game.watch.impress.co.jp

  2. Magmix "'Switch 2' Lottery Results Become a Hot Topic with Audition Reports" (2025/06/17) magmix.jp

  3. 4Gamer "Announcing the Results of the 4th Lottery Sale for Nintendo Switch 2" (2025/06/17) 4gamer.net

  4. ITmedia NEWS "No 'Automatic Transfer' to the 5th Lottery, Nintendo Announces" (2025/06/17) itmedia.co.jp

  5. MyNavi News "Results of the 4th Switch 2 Lottery, Next Announcement Scheduled for Early July" (2025/06/17) news.mynavi.jp

  6. Game*Spark "Background of the Sudden Rise of 'Air Rider' in X Trend: Is It Due to the Switch 2 Lottery?")(2025/06/17) gamespark.jp

  7. Excite News "Hololive Hoshimachi Suisei and Others' Lottery Results" (2025/06/17) excite.co.jp

  8. Mainichi.jp "Switch2 Lottery Audition Report in the Spotlight" (2025/06/17) mainichi.jp

  9. Nintendo Official Store "Nintendo Switch 2 Lottery Sales Page" store-jp.nintendo.com