Why Don't They Run Late? Learning Second-by-Second Operations from the Shinkansen

1. Introduction

Tokyo Station during lunchtime—when the departure bell rings with precision, passengers board in an orderly fashion, and the N700S starts moving almost without deviation. The "unbelievable" accuracy of an average annual delay of just 12 seconds (2019, Tokaido Shinkansen) continues to astonish international travelers.ja.wikipedia.org

2. "Japan vs. the World" in Numbers

• Shinkansen: Average delay of 12–54 seconds (varies by line and year)ja.wikipedia.orgreddit.com

• UK (National Rail): 86.8% arrive within 5/10 minutes (2025 Q1)dataportal.orr.gov.uk

• Germany Long-Distance (ICE/IC): 64% within 6 minutes (first half of 2025)welt.de

• USA Amtrak: 72% on-time performance across all lines (2024)amtrak.com
  Although units and evaluation criteria differ, it's rare for commuters to click their tongues at a "one-minute delay."

3. Thorough Separation of Technical Infrastructure

Japan's Shinkansen has eliminated the risk of mixed operation with freight trains and slower conventional trains by establishing a "passenger-only standard gauge" separately. The latest controls, such as Automatic Train Control (ATC), ATOS, and earthquake early warning-linked stop systems, are all designed with "punctuality" as the core.youtube.com

4. Scheduled Operation and "Second-Level Timetables"

The timetables of JR companies are simulated to the second, with over 2,000 trains running through without "mutual waiting." If a delay exceeds 5 minutes, a "delay certificate" is issued, and the system for notifying transfer search apps and station staff is activated immediately—this "culture of visualizing delays" drives the PDCA cycle for on-site improvements.mlit.go.jp

5. Maintenance as the Greatest "Weapon"

During the "four and a half hour window" from 0:30 to 4:30 AM, a team of about 5,000 track maintenance, power, and signal staff rushes onto the tracks. By constantly measuring wear, temperature, and vibration with IoT, and ensuring "replacement timing is not exceeded," delay due to failures is minimized.

6. People and Organizations—The Value of "Punctuality as Service"

Drivers are required to stop with "±0 seconds," and if delays occur, they must immediately report the reason and recovery plan via radio. In new employee training, they are taught that "a one-minute delay = taking away about 2,000 people's one minute of life." The entire society, including elementary school students sending message cards to stations on field trips, forms an ecosystem that supports "railway = accuracy."

7. The "Emotional Temperature Gap" Reflected on SNS

• The TikTok video "Trains always on time!" receives 200,000 likes with comments like "Japan, teach our country!"tiktok.com

• On Reddit, discussions arise about being astonished by "an average delay of 54 seconds" and "delay certificates becoming collector's items."reddit.comreddit.com

• Meanwhile, on X (formerly Twitter), Japanese people harshly criticize a "30-second early departure," while foreigners reply with "30 seconds? Cute delay," highlighting the global value gap.

8. Structural Challenges Faced by Overseas Railways

• UK: The franchise system separates operations and infrastructure, making construction planning coordination difficult.

• Germany: Aging infrastructure and long-distance freight use the same tracks, causing recovery delays to cascade.welt.de

• USA: Half of the lines are borrowed from freight, with freight given priority, resulting in passengers being "kept waiting."amtrak.com

9. Yet, the "Trials" Approach

Increased track inspections due to heavy rain and extreme heat from climate change, labor shortages, aging populations along the lines, and delays in the start of linear construction—all signal that JR companies are heading into an era where "the old ways no longer work." While maintaining a zero-delay culture, digital twins and AI timetable reconstruction are urgently needed.

10. Conclusion—Trust Woven by "Seconds"

The "12-second miracle" is a combination of highly integrated technology, people, culture, and systems. The "trust timeline" built by Japanese railways could become a catalyst for post-pandemic tourism recovery and regional revitalization. However, accuracy is not born overnight, and maintaining it requires enormous effort. What the world should learn from Japan may be the "respect for time" rather than the technology itself.